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Fresh positive U.S. data and upcoming Australian manufacturing data makes this simple support break on AUD/USD the one to watch today.

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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:

  • Australia AIG Manufacturing Index at 9:30 pm GMT
  • New Zealand building permits at 9:45 pm GMT
  • New Zealand terms of trade at 9:45 pm GMT
  • Japan core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
  • Japan unemployment rate at 11:30 pm GMT
  • Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI at 12:30 am GMT (Mar. 1)

What to Watch: AUD/USD

AUD/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart
AUD/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD just broke below a strong area of interest around 0.7130 today after the U.S. reported a better-than-expected Q4 2018 GDP read of 2.6% versus the expectation of 2.2% growth annualized.  It was a nice pop for the Greenback off of the news and something to follow for the rest of the session, but looking forward, the next possible catalyst could be the latest update on Australian manufacturing sentiment coming at 9:30 pm GMT. Since this is a leading indicator on Australia’s economy, it could spark solid short-term volatility and momentum for the Australian dollar. And we’ve also got a read on Chinese manufacturing sentiment coming at 1:45 am GMT (Mar. 1) that could contribute volatility to the Aussie given the strong trading relationship between Australia and China.

Look out for those events soon and if Aussie PMI does come in weaker than the 52.5 previous read, that previously mentioned support area could easily be reached or even broken given the daily ATR of AUD/USD to be around 60 pips. Given the weaker data we’ve seen from Australia lately, a better-than-previous read would be an upside surprise and could spark an short-term rally in the Aussie that’s been beaten down in the last two sessions.

For the bears, a chunk of the move has already been made, so waiting for bounce to the consolidation area is a better potential return-on-risk. But of course, you have to consider that missing the move is a possibility.

For the bulls, an upside surprise from both Australia and China PMI’s could yield large move given the expectations for weakness, which could easily lead AUD/USD to an upside break of the consolidation area between 0.7130 – 0.7150.