For today’s forex watchlist, we’re pairing up this simple support break on AUD/CAD with recent big time Aussie and Loonie catalysts, and central bank speeches coming soon.
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- US existing home sales fall sharply to 3-year low
- Philly Fed manufacturing index slumps into negative territory in February for the first time in nearly three years
- U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly fall in December
- Latest unemployment benefits claims hint labor market is regaining strength
- China’s Dalian port bans Australian coal imports, sets 2019 quota
- China central bank sees benchmark rate cut as last resort, may use other tools
- European Union, Britain moving toward agreement on Irish backstop for Brexit
- EU president Juncker says he is ‘not optimistic’ that no-deal can be avoided after meeting with Theresa May
- U.K. Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) in January 2019 was in surplus by £14.9 billion
- ECB officials sweated slowdown in January meeting
- Japan Manufacturing Sector Falls Into Contraction In February
- Australian jobs growth surges again
- Canada adds 35,400 jobs in January, led by trade: ADP
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- BOC Poloz speech to Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal at 6:00 pm GMT
- RBA Lowe testifies to House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics at 10:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: AUD/CAD
This is about as straight forward as it gets. Looking at the one hour chart above of AUD/CAD, we see a minor support area being broken with very strong momentum thanks to bearish Aussie news (China port bans Australian coal; Westpac sees two rate cuts this year) during the Asia and morning London session. The Loonie got a slight boost as well after positive reads on ADP employment and wholesales data, so the bears may be here to stay on AUD/CAD for the rest of the session.
But as shown up above, we’ve got upcoming speeches from both heads of the Bank on Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia, so depending on what they say, that bearish sentiment could increase, flip, or do nothing at all. Odds are for volatility to pick up as today’s data may give both central bankers fuel to deliver unexpected rhetoric on their monetary policy outlook, especially RBA Lowe’s upcoming testimony.
For the bears, shorting here is valid argument given today’s events, but that .9300 was a strong area of interest in the past so additional down moves may be limited. If it does break though, the next support area is not seen until .9200, which is very attractive given the catalysts and volatility increase.
For the bulls, you may want to wait until RBA Lowe testifies later. Given the impressively strong Australian jobs data just released, he may not be so dovish in his rhetoric, which is likely the expectation given the falling housing market in Australia and subdued inflation conditions.