We’re seeing Uncle Sam’s retail sales numbers today!
Will the release help traders decide on a bias ahead of next week’s FOMC event?
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Asia-London session watchlist checked out NZD/JPY’s fresh breakout ahead of New Zealand’s GDP release. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Oil prices end at highest since July as U.S. crude supplies fall a 6th-straight week
- Canada annual CPI rises 4.1% in August, highest level since 2003
- New Zealand’s economy surges in Q2, supporting rate hike call
- Japan exports slow as supply chain hiccups hit factories
- AU inflation and wage expectations higher in September
- Australian employment slides in August as lockdowns slash workers’ hours
- AMC CEO says theaters will accept other cryptocurrencies along with Bitcoin
- Asian shares fall again, dollar drifts
- Investors tense up as fears of post-election gridlock rise in Canada
- NZD gets no lasting lift from super-strong GDP data
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- Eurozone’s trade balance at 9:00 am GMT
- ECB President Lagarde to give a speech at 12:00 pm GMT
- Canada’s housing starts at 12:15 pm GMT
- Canada’s ADP non-farm employment change at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada’s wholesale sales at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. retail sales numbers at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index at 12:30 pm GMT
If you’re not familiar with the forex market’s main trading sessions, check out our Forex Market Hours tool.
What to Watch: USD/JPY
Later today the U.S. will publish its August retail sales data.
Word around is that we’ll see another 0.8% dip for the headline numbers while core retail trading probably slipped by 0.2% for the month.Much stronger-than-expected retail trading would probably would help keep USD/JPY inside its range. See, USD/JPY is almost at 109.40, which is only a few pips up from the range support that’s been around since mid-July.
If FOMC Governor Powell and his team see more evidence their easy monetary policies aren’t that necessary, then they’ll find it easier to start tapering. Dollar demand would likely improve and USD/JPY could head to 109.80 or the 110.50 range resistance.
But if today’s retail numbers surprise to the downside, then we’ll likely see some dollar-selling. Some traders would hold on or buy non-dollar assets and drag USD lower.