Canada is printing its monthly employment reports today!
How will the releases impact EUR/CAD’s short-term uptrend?
Before moving on, ICYMI, Cyclopip looked at EUR/GBP’s range to trade the ECB’s latest policy decision. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- ECB slows pace of pandemic bond purchases after inflation jumps to decade high
- U.S. initial jobless claims fall by most since late June in week
- EIA reports a smaller-than-expected 1.5 million-barrel weekly decline in U.S. crude supplies
- Fed officials say bond taper could still start this year
- BoC plans to hike rates before reducing bond holdings
- Oil recovers as tight U.S. supplies offset China reserves sales plan
- Asian stocks, currencies gain as Biden-Xi phone call lifts mood
- AUD, NZD try for firmer finish to soggy week
- UK economic growth slows sharply in July
- Dollar set for first winning week in three with eyes on Fed
- European stocks gain on tech and luxury boost, but set for weekly losses
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- ECB President Lagarde to hold a presser at 9:30 am GMT
- Canada’s unemployment rate at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada’s employment change at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. PPI report at 12:30 pm GMT
If you’re not familiar with the forex market’s main trading sessions, check out our Forex Market Hours tool.
What to Watch: EUR/CAD
In a few hours, Canada will print its labor market numbers for the month of August.
Market geeks see 95K additional jobs added for the month, about the same as July’s 94K and much lower than June’s 230K increases. The jobless rate is seen falling from 7.5% to 7.3% while the participation rate could dip from 65.2% to 65.1%.In a speech this week, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Macklem noted that “the unevenness in the labour market is moderating.” If today’s jobs reports surprise to the upside as the IVEY PMI hinted, then the BOC can proceed with readjusting its asset purchases and eventually raise its rates.
We could see EUR/CAD trade below the 200 SMA and maybe retest an ascending channel support that’s been around since late August.
Weaker-than-expected numbers, on the other hand, would energize EUR/CAD bulls who already have the 1-hour 200 SMA and mid-channel support on their side.
Of course, it doesn’t hurt them that the “tweaking not tapering” statements from the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday didn’t translate to longer-term bearish sentiments for the euro.
EUR/CAD could firmly trade above 1.4950 and even revisit its weekly highs.