Uncle Sam is printing its retail sales numbers!

Will the dollar stay within its short-term range after the event?

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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

  • Yellen sees ‘several more months of rapid inflation’ before easing, worries about housing impact
  • U.S. unemployment claims drop to pandemic low of 360,000, but businesses still struggle to find workers
  • BusinessNZ: Expansion in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector picked up in June
  • New Zealand inflation surges, fueling RBNZ rate-hike bets
  • BOJ cuts growth forecast, unveils climate scheme plan
  • U.S. manufacturing output dips as chip shortage weighs on motor vehicles
  • Asian shares slip as investors look past upbeat tech earnings
  • Dollar rise dominates even as kiwi hops higher with inflation

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

What to Watch: USD/JPY

USD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

In case you were too busy watching Olivia Rodrigo meet the POTUS yesterday instead of the top forex gainers and losers, then you should know that the dollar has been making pips rain thanks to strong U.S. data upping the pressure on the Fed to taper its easy policies possibly earlier than the members had planned.

The plot will thicken today when Uncle Sam prints its retail sales numbers for the month of June. Word around is that the combo of more business reopenings and higher wages will translate to a strong consumer spending month.

Strong retail activity would add legs to USD/JPY’s upswing, which began when the pair found buyers at the 109.75 range support. Dollar bulls could overcome the 100 and 200 SMAs in favor of targeting the 110.70 mid-range levels.

Of course, it’s also possible that a positive report is already priced in, or that traders will look to take profits from their pro-dollar trades at the end of the week.

USD/JPY, which typically moves by 50 pips on an average Friday, can dip back to the 109.75 range support.