The U.K. and U.S. markets are out on bank holidays today, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see interesting price action!

Today I’m looking at USD/JPY’s freshly broken range resistance.

By the way, in case you missed it, I’ve summarized last week’s market moves in my Weekly Forex Market Recap. Check it out so you’ll know the last major headlines!

And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

  • Japan’s April factory output extends gains, retail sales jump
  • China’s factory outlook holds firm as recovery passes peak
  • ANZ New Zealand’s final business outlook revised lower in May
  • Japan’s consumer confidence eases in May
  • China moves to cool yuan rally with fixing, verbal warnings
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda casts doubt on Bitcoin
  • Asia shares look to extend rally before U.S. jobs test
  • Australian dollar edges up as data-packed week starts, kiwi also higher

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

  • U.K. and U.S. markets out on bank holidays
  • Canada’s current account balance at 12:30 pm GMT
  • Australia AIG manufacturing index at 10:30 pm GMT

What to Watch: USD/JPY

USD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/JPY broke above a weeks-long range last Friday after U.S. traders prepared for a long weekend.

The pair has lost some pips since then and is now trading back at the 109.70 previous range resistance level.

Are we looking at a break-and-retest scenario? There won’t be any top-tier reports out today, but traders who are up during the U.S. session could start to price in a slightly stronger U.S. NFP report release.

Of course, the week has only just begun. Watch out for speculations that point to the Fed scaling back its stimulus efforts.

If we see hints of the Fed even considering tightening its policies, or if this week’s headlines inspire risk aversion, then USD/JPY could drop back inside its range and hit the 108.60 range support.

But if more traders jump on the “June NFP will be stronger than May’s numbers” speculation train, then USD/JPY can go on its way up and revisit its 110.80 March highs.