Uncle Sam is about to print its labor market numbers for the month of April!
Today I’m looking at USD/JPY’s Fib levels on the 1-hour time frame for trade opportunities.
But first, check out the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- U.S. weekly jobless claims drop below 500,000; layoffs lowest since 2000
- Global stocks rally into U.S. jobs report amid surging commodity prices
- Japan March real wages rise for 2nd straight month
- Japan’s service sector shrinks at slowest pace since health crisis started – PMI
- Australia’s services sector recovery continues to strengthen in April
- Australia’s RBA sees growth boom underway, but wages left far behind
- China private services-sector gauge rises in April
- China’s trade surges on strong global demand, commodity boom
- China iron ore imports dip in April on shipping disruptions
- Dollar under pressure as U.S. payrolls data could spur more risk-taking
- U.S. economy likely created nearly a million jobs in April
- German March industrial production beats forecasts
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- U.K.’s construction PMI at 8:30 am GMT
- ECB’s Lagarde to talk global economy at 10:00 am GMT
- U.S. NFP reports at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada’s labor market numbers at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada’s IVEY PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
What to Watch: USD/JPY
In a few hours, we’ll know if the U.S. economy had indeed added ONE MILLION jobs in one month. My buddy Forex Gump said that increased vaccinations and business reopenings got traders expecting a lot from the labor market in April.
Will the numbers reach the market’s expectations? More importantly, will it boost the dollar against the yen?
We’ve seen from MarketMilk’s charts that positive updates from the U.S. economy have mostly translated to dollar weakness against “riskier” bets like the pound and the comdolls so far this year. But it looks like dollar bulls have no problem buying the Greenback against the yen!USD/JPY is now sitting at 109.00, which is near the 200 SMA and a 38.2% Fib on the 1-hour chart.
If we do see an explosion of job creation (hint: POTUS Biden scheduled a presser after the report’s release), then we could see the dollar extend its gains against the safe-haven yen. The 109.50 zone is a good initial target but I’ll also be on the lookout for a trip to 110.00.
But if the numbers disappoint, or if we see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news situation, then USD/JPY can extend its current downswing maybe all the way to the key 108.50 area of interest.
