The Aussie and Kiwi were the biggest winners of today’s Asian session trading.
Will Powell’s speech affect AUD/USD’s trends in the next few hours?
Before we talk setups, read up on the top headlines that moved the forex scene during the Asian session:
- Fed’s Beige Book finds only modest improvement in economy
- RBNZ’s Orr: Central banks prepared to risk higher inflation
- Australia retail sales climb 0.5% in January
- Australia records biggest monthly trade surplus ever as household spending drives growth
- Japan consumer confidence climbs to highest level in one year in February
- Bond scares spook world shares, investors look to Powell
- Dollar holds nerve before Powell, Aussie and kiwi rise again
- EU regulators approve $24B French scheme to help virus-hit companies
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- U.K.’s construction PMI at 9:30 am GMT
- Eurozone’s retail sales at 10:00 am GMT
- Eurozone’s unemployment rate at 10:00 am GMT
- U.S. Challenger job cuts at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. initial jobless claims at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. factory orders at 1:30 pm GMT
- Fed Chairman Powell to jawbone bond yields today at 5:05 pm GMT?
What to Watch: AUD/USD
AUD/USD has been a star player today as it gained 50 pips after Australia printed a pretty good retail sales numbers and a literal G.O.A.T level trade surplus report.Will more bulls join the party today? AUD/USD is sitting on the 0.7800 major psychological level that’s close to a trend line support on the 1-hour time frame.
Those who are thinking of buying the Aussie against the dollar can still target the 0.7850 area that’s near March’s highs and a possible ascending triangle resistance zone.
AUD/USD has an average volatility of 77 pips on Thursdays so, unless we see fresh catalysts, then it’s likely that the .7800 area will hold as resistance.
But what if we do see a fresh catalyst? All eyes are on Fed Chairman JPow, who is expected to rain on the bond yield hunters’ parade.
If London and U.S. session traders choose to price in Australia’s strong data releases, or if the dollar loses its shine ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report, then AUD/USD could hit the 0.7850 resistance.
But if Powell shrugs off the rising U.S. Treasury yields, or if today’s releases inspire concern over the global economic recovery, then AUD/USD could dip back down to its trend line support.