Partner Center Find a Broker

The forex calendar is heavy with potential catalysts ahead from Australia and China, making the consolidation break in AUD/USD one to watch for the session.

Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily London Session Watchlist looked at an opportunity forming on GBP/CHF ahead of U.K. inflation data, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!

Intermarket Snapshot

Equity Markets Bond Yields Commodities & Crypto
DAX: 12981.13 +2.23%
FTSE: 6320.61 +2.28%
S&P 500: 3232.05 +1.08%
DJIA: 26971.82 +1.24%
US 10-yr 0.636%  +0.022
Bund 10-YR -0.44% +0.001
UK 10-YR: 0.172% +0.022
JPN 10-YR: 0.025% -0.001
Oil: 40.79 +1.24%
Gold: 1812.90 -0.028%
Bitcoin:9240.00 -0.311%
Ethereum: 239.79 -0.47%

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

Dow rises more than 300 points on Moderna’s vaccine news and Goldman’s blowout quarter

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 7.5M barrels from the previous week.

Bank of Canada holds rate steady at 0.25% in first decision under new head Tiff Macklem

Bank of Canada says economy won’t recover to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2022

U.S. Mortgage applications increased 5.1 percent from one week earlier

July Empire state index in positive territory for first time since pandemic began

US industrial production surges 5.4% in June

Oil steady after Saudi minister signals OPEC+ may reduce cuts

Canadian Manufacturing sales increased 10.7% to $40.2 billion in May following a record 27.9% decline in April

UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 0.6% in June 2020, up from 0.5% in May.

BoE’s Tenreyro sees “incomplete V” shape for UK recovery

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar for U.S. & Asia:

Fed Beige Book at 6:00 pm GMT
New Zealand CPI at 10:45 pm GMT
Australia Employment, Consumer Inflation expectations at 1:00 am GMT (July 16)
China House Price Index at 1:30 am GMT (July 16)
China GDP, Industrial Production, Retail sales, Unemployment rate at 2:00 am GMT (July 16)

What to Watch: AUD/USD

AUD/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart
AUD/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart

Up ahead, we’ve got potential Aussie catalysts, most notably the latest employment update from Australia and China, as well as GDP, retail sales and industrial production numbers from China as well. This will likely get Aussie traders moving, especially if we see any big surprises in the data.

In terms of price action, AUD/USD just broke above a consolidation pattern, ranging between 0.6925 – 0.7000 over the past week. And with risk sentiment firmly leaning positive at the moment, the bulls are definitely in control with the potential for more buyers to come.

If we see positive surprises from Australia and/or China during the Asia session, looking for AUD/USD to move higher with buying support starting around the broken resistance level/major psychological level (0.7000) down to 0.6925. Targeting the next major psychological level at 0.7100 is a reachable target within the session if this scenario plays out, especially if global risk sentiment remains strongly positive.

If we get weaker-than-expected data from AU and CN, plus a shift back to negative global risk sentiment, then a break back below the 0.7000 handle could draw in sellers quickly and shoot for the bottom of the range at 0.6925. Using the daily ATR (70 pips) as a guide, the bottom of the range is a reachable target within a session or two in this scenario.