With volatility still in decline, we’re checking out simple ranging plays for the next session. EUR/AUD has a solid looking setup that could see some action with Australian data ahead.
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily London Session Watchlist looked at an opportunity forming on GBP/JPY as reversal patterns start to emerge, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
Intermarket Snapshot
| Equity Markets | Bond Yields | Commodities & Crypto |
| DAX: 12320.29 +0.08% FTSE: 6191.43 +0.35% S&P 500: 3116.81 +0.53% DJIA: 25890.38 +0.30% |
US 10-yr 0.696% +0.043 Bund 10-YR -0.391% +0.069 UK 10-YR: 0.217% +0.045 JPN 10-YR: 0.056% +0.022 |
Oil: 39.71 +1.12% Gold: 1775.50 -1.38% Bitcoin:9241.00 +1.04% Ethereum: 229.14 +1.47% |
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
June private payrolls rose 2.37 million and there was a big positive revision for May, ADP says
U.S. employers announced an additional 170,219 job cuts in June
U.S. Construction spending fell 2.1% in May
German employment May 2020: -1.1% on the same month a year earlier
German Retail turnover in May 2020: 3.8% in real terms on May 2019
Eurozone manufacturing sector moves towards stabilisation in June
UK manufacturing stabilises in June following severe COVID-19 downturn
Swiss PMI June 2020: Significant recovery of the service PMI
Oil rises on signs of economic recovery, but new infections loom
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar for U.S. & Asia:
FOMC Meeting minutes at 6:00 pm GMT
U.S. Vehicle sales at 12:00 am GMT (July 2)
Australia Trade Balance at 1:30 am GMT (July 2)
What to Watch: EUR/AUD
On the one hour chart above, we can see the pair has been in a sideways pattern over the last two weeks, trading roughly between 1.6250 – 1.6400. After a strong move lower after resistance the top of the range, we’re back to the bottom and finding buying support at the moment.
As mentioned above, volatility has been sliding across the markets and with no major catalysts scheduled ahead, odds are in favor of the bulls at the moment that technical traders may taking this support retest as a buying opportunity.
And if the upcoming Australian trade balance data disappoints and/or broad risk sentiment shifts negative, then the probability a bounce from current levels.
For EUR/AUD bears, the momentum is currently in your favor at the moment, and with fresh positive coronavirus vaccine news, odds are pretty good positive risk sentiment could last for the session. If this is the case and Australian data surprises positive, then a break below 1.6250 could draw in momentum sellers and extend the down move lower.