Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily London Session Watchlist looked at an opportunity forming on USD/CHF ahead of U.S. jobs data, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
|Equity Markets||Bond Yields||Commodities & Crypto|
|DAX: 10615.90 -1.06%
FTSE: 5852.21 +2.79%
S&P 500: 2872.45 +0.16%
DJIA: 23887.38 +0.04%
|US 10-yr 0.741% +0.084
Bund 10-YR -0.51% +0.068
UK 10-YR: 0.242% +0.036
JPN 10-YR: -0.019 +0.02
|Oil: 23.51 -4.28%
Gold: 1694.90 -0.91%
Bitcoin: 9239.46 2.96%
Etherium: 208.04 +1.66%
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Wall Street climbs on hopes of easing restrictions
- Oil falls to $30 as supply glut counters lockdown easings
- US private payrolls drop by 20.2M in April, the worst job loss in the history of ADP report
- Eurozone economy services busines activity index drops to 12.0, a record low
- German factory orders was down -15.6% in March m/m
- Decline in German business activity deepens to new record low in April
- In March 2020, Volume of retail trade down by 11.2% in euro area; Down by 10.4% in EU
- EU predicts region will contract 7.4% this year in worst economic shock since 1930s
- Survey-record decline in UK construction work amid site closures due to COVID-19 pandemic
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar for U.S. & Asia:
- Fed Bostic speech at 5:30 pm GMT
- Australia Services Index at 10:30 pm GMT
- UK GfK Consumer confidence at 11:01 pm GMT
- Australia Trade Balance at 1:30 am GMT (May 7)
- China Caixin Services PMI at 1:45 am GMT (May 7)
- China Trade Balance 3:00 am GMT (May 7)
What to Watch: AUD/USD
After last week’s drop from 0.6570 and this week’s bounce from 0.63070, AUD/USD has been chillin’ like a villain in a tight range between 0.6420 – 0.6460.
There hasn’t been much to shake up the markets over the last couple of days, but the upcoming Australian and Chinese economic updates could turn this consolidation into a breakout setup.
For the bears out there, the technical picture plays into your favor as we just saw resistance around the Fibonacci retracement area / minor psychological level of 0.6450. Stochastic seems to nearly be testing overbought conditions, so the argument is that we may see a reversal soon in AUD/USD.
For the bulls in the house, a net positive turn could spark a bullish reaction in AUD/USD, at which point the signal to start putting together a long position plan could be an upside break of the falling ‘highs’ around the 38% Fibonacci retracement level.
The previous swing high around 0.6570 is reachable within a few sessions, so this is a setup for swing traders looking to play the current risk-on drivers (i.e., slow re-opening of economies around the world).