Checking out this steady trend in AUD/NZD ahead of potential market movers from both Australia and New Zealand.
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily London Session Watch list looked at an opportunity forming on AUD/CHF to play the risk-on environment, so be sure to check that out!
|Equity Markets||Bond Yields||Commodities & Crypto|
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Oil gains as optimism returns to U.S.-China trade talks
- The U.S. international trade deficit was $66.5B in October, down $4.0B from $70.5B in September
- Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Softened in November
- Philly Fed November 2019 Non-manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: continued expansion in non-manufacturing activity in the region
- US consumer confidence falls for fourth consecutive month
- Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says the fourth-quarter economy is ‘weak’
- Home price gains accelerate in September, S&P Case-Shiller Index says
- U.S. new home sales fall in October; September revised higher
- Gross mortgage lending across the UK residential market in October 2019 was 0.9% lower y/y
- Conservatives’ poll lead over Labour narrows to 11 points – Kantar poll
- Consumer sentiment in Germany picks up again in November: GfK
- Interest rates to stay low but unlikely to go ‘negative’ says RBA boss Philip Lowe
- Reserve Bank may create money to boost economy when rates drop to 0.25%
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar for U.S. & Asia:
- Fed Brainard speech at 6:00 pm GMT
- RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 8:00 pm GMT
- API Crude oil inventories at 9:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand Trade balance at 9:45 pm GMT
- RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr speech at 10:00 pm GMT
- Australia Construction work q/q at 12:30 am GMT (Nov. 27)
- China Industrial profits at 1:30 am GMT (Nov. 27)
What to Watch: AUD/NZD
Today we’re checking AUD/NZD on the one hour chart ahead of potential catalysts from both New Zealand and Australia in the upcoming Asia trading session. Most notable event of the bunch is a speech from RBNZ Governor Orr on the Financial Stability report, but we could see a little bit of action from the Australian construction data and New Zealand trade balance as well.
From a price action perspective, the chart shows a clear trend in favor of the Kiwi over the Aussie, and as they say, the trend is your friend. So if you’re an AUD/NZD bear, the odds look to be in your favor at the moment, and the scenario to look out for is positive comments from Governor Orr and a disappointing read on Australian construction work. This combination will likely bring on the bears, and with a daily ATR of around 50 pips, the pressure could be enough to break the minor support just above 1.0550 for swing trade opportunity.
For AUD/NZD bulls, it’s gonna take a scenario of both negative comments from Orr and a very big positive surprise from Australia to break the trend lower, and in that situation, a break above the falling ‘highs’ should draw in both momentum traders and profit takers. This would lead to a potential swing opportunity that would likely max out around the next area of interest around 1.0650, for an attractive potential return-on-risk.