We’ve got potential action coming for the Aussie with the monthly Australian employment update just ahead, making the recent breakdown in AUD/JPY one to watch!
Before moving on, ICYMI, we’ve started doing a Daily London Session Watch list! And today, we looked at an opportunity forming on GBP/NZD ahead of U.K. inflation data, so be sure to check that out. For all you traders out there who trade the London session, be sure to check out the site daily for the latest news updates and pairs that could be on the move for the session!
|Equity Markets||Bond Yields||Commodities & Crypto|
|DAX: 13209.98 -0.55%
FTSE: 7335.08 -0.41%
S&P 500: 3084.89 -0.24%
DJIA: 27648.02 -0.16%
|US 10-yr 1.867% -0.042
Bund 10-YR -0.303% -0.058
UK 10-YR: 0.744% -0.064
JPN 10-YR: -0.046% +0.023
|Oil: 56.81 +0.02%
Gold: 1462.00 +0.57%
Bitcoin: 8744.96 -0.41%
Etherium: 186.66 +0.32%
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Fed’s Powell says interest rates unlikely to change as long as growth continues
- U.S. consumer prices increase more than expected in October
- UK inflation hits three-year low; London house prices fall again
- Oil falls as U.S.-China trade deal prospects dim
- OPEC’s Barkindo: Shale producers are concerned that their slowdown is becoming a ‘fast deceleration’
- UK’s Johnson has 10-point lead over Labour before election: Kantar poll
- Industrial production up by 0.1% in euro area; Up by 0.2% in EU28
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar for U.S. & Asia:
- Fed Chair Powell testimony to Joint Economic Committee at 4:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Monthly budget statement at 7:00 pm GMT
- RBA Bullock speech at 10:50 pm GMT
- Japan GDP at 11:50 pm GMT
- Australia employment at 12:30 am GMT (Nov. 14)
- China Industrial production & Retail sales at 2:00 am GMT (Nov. 14)
- Japan Tertiary industry index at 4:30 am GMT (Nov. 14)
What to Watch: AUD/JPY
As mentioned above, it looks like the Australian dollar may be the big FX mover of the session on the upcoming Australian jobs update, but it’s also possible that the Chinese economic updates could provide a boost of volatility as well. We’re pairing the Aussie with the Japanese yen, which may react to Japan’s upcoming GDP update, but it also seems to be benefiting from recent fading optimism on the U.S.-China trade front.
On the one hour chart above of AUD/JPY, we can see the pair has recently broken below an uptrending market pattern, as well as a minor area of interest around the 74.50 handle. The next support area is the 74.00 major psychological level, while the likely resistance area is that broken 74.50 area up to the broken rising ‘lows’ pattern.
If you’re a bear on AUD/JPY ahead of the Aussie jobs data, waiting for a retest of the broken support areas is probably the conservative play given that the next support area is less than one daily ATR (roughly 60 pips) away. Another conservative entry strategy would be to wait for a break of the 74.00 handle on very disappointing Aussie jobs data (enough to warrant speculation of further RBA cuts) and go for a swing target of the next major support area (around 71.00 – 72.00)
For the bulls, a positive Aussie jobs update AND/OR a positive turn of sentiment for the U.S.-China trade story is the catalyst for traders to get back to the short-term uptrend. A test, hold, and bullish reversal candles around the 74.00 – 74.50 is the series of moves to look out for to go for a swing long play as those catalysts will likely have influence for the next few sessions.