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The USD/CAD bear train continues to chug along, and could get one last push into the weekend with one final round of U.S. & Canadian data on the way.

Intermarket Snapshot

Equity Markets Bond Yields Commodities & Crypto
DAX: 12290.36 +0.37%
FTSE: 7409.54 -0.09%
S&P 500: 2926.12 +0.42%
DJIA: 26531.75 -0.02%
US 10-yr 2.038% -0.011
Bund 10-YR -0.314% -0.008
UK 10-YR: 0.834% 0.003
JPN 10-YR: -0.144% +0.005
Oil: 58.20 +0.52%
Gold: 1437.50 +1.36%
Bitcoin: 11422.54 -10.63%
Etherium: 299.26 -10.50%

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:

  • G20 Meetings All day Thursday & Friday
  • GfK consumer confidence at 7:01 pm GMT
  • Japan core CPI & unemployment rate at 7:30 pm GMT
  • BOJ Summary of Opinions & Japan industrial production at 7:50 pm GMT
  • Australia private sector credit at 9:30 pm GMT
  • Japan Housing starts at 1:00 am GMT (June 28)
  • Swiss economic barometer at 3:00 am GMT (June 28)
  • UK current account & final GDP at 4:30 am GMT (June 28)
  • European flash CPI at 5:00 am GMT (June 28)
  • Canadian GDP & producer prices at 8:30 am GMT (June 28)
  • US Core PCE, personal spending & income at 8:30 am GMT (June 28)

What to Watch: USD/CAD

USD/CAD 1-Hour Forex Chart
USD/CAD 1-Hour Forex Chart

Although the momentum has slowed down, the Greenback continues to feel the pressure after last week’s dovish FOMC meeting that opened the door for Fed interest rate cuts soon. This is likely the reason why we saw USD/CAD continue its descent this week without much of a pullback, along with a continued rally in oil to support the Loonie off of Middle East tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Looking forward, we may see a pickup in volatility during the Friday U.S. trading session with a healthy basket of economic updates from both the U.S. and Canada, including a top tier event in the form of Canada’s monthly GDP update. Let’s also not forget that the G20 meetings are going on now, so any geopolitical developments there would likely affect the Greenback in general.

So today’s watchlist is a pretty simple one as the bears are still in favor of winning out the week, and we can see that a minor support level was recently broken around 1.3150. If retested and the bears hold, then traders should consider hopping back on the trend, especially if Canadian GDP surprises with a better-than-expected or better-than-previous read.

For the bulls, a disappointment with Canadian GDP and a positive U.S. core PCE number would likely spark some buying in USD/CAD, and if it’s able to break above the falling highs marked on the one hour chart above, it might draw in fresh momentum higher on likely fresh buyers or even profit taking ahead of what could be an eventful weekend with the G20 meetings going on.