This solid technical setup on EUR/CHF is one to watch ahead of more PMI, retail sales, and PPI updates from the euro area.
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- Powell says the Fed will ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’
- US factory orders fall; shipments post largest drop in two years
- Sharpest decline in U.K. construction output since March 2018
- Oil prices fall as energy demand set to take a hit amid economic slowdown
- Euro area annual inflation down to 1.2%
- Euro area unemployment at 7.6%
- Villeroy Says ECB Could Be More Active in Boosting Euro’s Role
- RBA cuts interest rates to a fresh record low
- Australia central bank chief says rates could go even lower
- Bitcoin Price Plunges 14% in Violent Spiral to $7,700 — Here’s Why
- South African rand falls as country’s GDP declines in Q1
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- Australia Services index at 11:30 pm GMT
- Australia GDP at 2:30 am GMT (June 5)
- China Caixin services PMI at 2:45 am GMT (June 5)
- Various Euro area final services PMI at 9:00 am GMT (June 5)
- U.K. services PMI at 9:30 am GMT (June 5)
- Euro area PPI & retail sales at 10:00 am GMT (June 5)
- U.S. ADP Non-farm employment change at 1:15 pm GMT (June 5)
What to Watch: EUR/CHF
The upcoming economic calendar is pretty much lacking top tier events to trade on, but it is stacked with mid-tier euro area updates that could bring some movement to solid technical setups to euro pairs later.
And the technical setup we’re checking out today is the downtrend in EUR/CHF, with its textbook pattern of falling ‘highs’ that has brought in sellers on every retest. The 1.1200 area is also an area of minor interest that briefly held as support at the end of May, but now broken and held as resistance in June.
It looks like we’re in the midst of another reversal lower as the S&R area and falling ‘highs’ pattern is bringing in sellers once again on a retest, and if the upcoming euro area data does disappoint on net, this pair could pick up volatility once again and the trend lower could continue. If you’re a bear be on the lookout for this scenario to play out before considering a short position, or at the very least a full short position.
And if you’re bull, look out for a combination of positive euro area surprises AND a continued waning of trade war fears to potential break that falling ‘highs’ pattern. It’ll likely take both scenarios to play out as the euro area updates alone probably aren’t enough to break the Swissy’s strength we’ve seen over the past few weeks.