AUD/CAD makes it to today’s watchlist thanks to a classic trend chart pattern in the works and some potential market movers from Australia coming soon.
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1.75%
- China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths: newspapers
- Boris Johnson, favorite to be Britain’s next PM, to face court for alleged Brexit lies
- In Q4 2018, French GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as in Q3: +0.3%
- Leo Varadkar warns of ‘growing risk of no-deal Brexit’
- The KOF Economic Barometer drops by 1.8 points in May to 94.4 points from 96.2 in April
- J.P. Morgan expects the RBA will slash Australia’s cash rate to 0.5%
- New Zealand Financial Stability Report: May 2019
- NZ central bank says current mortgage curbs appropriate, risks remain elevated
- Headline NZ business confidence (up 6 to net -32%) in May versus a previous read of -37.5%
- BOJ’s Kuroda signals room for more flexible inflation target
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- New Zealand building permits at 11:45 pm GMT
- Australia building approvals & private capital expenditure at 2:30 am GMT (May 30)
- New Zealand Annual Budget at 3:00 GMT (May 30)
- U.S. GDP, trade balance and unemployment claims at 1:30 pm GMT (May 30)
- Canada current account at 1:30 pm GMT (May 30)
What to Watch: AUD/CAD
The economic event calendar for the next twenty four hours is looking pretty light as much of Europe will be on holiday in observance of Ascension Day. Fortunately, we do have some potential market movers coming from Australia in the form of the latest building approvals and private capital expenditure data in the upcoming Asia session. These aren’t usually big market movers, but it’s all we got so let’s take a look at the Aussie for today’s watchlist.
We’ll be pairing it up against the Loonie, which saw the latest monetary policy update from the Bank of Canada. Unfortunately, that seems to be a dud event as they held the interest rate at 1.75% as expected, and continues the recent rhetoric of warranted accommodative policy and that future moves will be data dependent. So no big reaction for the Loonie today, but its possible to see volatility later when Asia traders get a chance to price in today’s events.
That likely makes AUD/CAD’s short-term moves more dependent on the Aussie, and it’s recent price action may have just setup a swing opportunity as the pair’s rebound from the May low around 0.9200 could be at a turning point as it hits the 61% Fib and the stochastic is already falling out of overbought territory.
So, with technicals showing a potential reversal point, the scenario to look out for is negative updates from Australia and reversal candle patterns around current levels for a potential swing short play. Negative U.S.-China trade updates would also likely bring it the volatility needed for bearish moves, so don’t forget to put that on your radar as well for a fresh short position to play the downtrend lower.