The upcoming FOMC minutes have the potential to move the Greenback, and the upcoming PMI updates for Europe presents a few different opportunities for EUR/USD.
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- Fed may cut rates if inflation keeps disappointing: Bullard
- May’s Brexit gambit fails as her premiership fades
- UK inflation rises in April by less than Bank of England expected
- Draghi Says Euro Zone Must Overcome Impasse on Risk Sharing
- Canadian retail sales increased for the second consecutive month, rising 1.1% to $51.3 billion in March
- Japan’s Exports Fall for Fifth Month Amid Trade Tensions
- Japan March core machinery orders rise 3.8% month-on-month
- New Zealand quarterly retail sales rose 0.7%, after a strong 1.7% rise in December
- Oil prices down on swelling US crude stockpiles, demand concerns
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- FOMC meeting minutes at 7:00 pm GMT
- Australia manufacturing & services PMI at 12:00 am GMT (May 23)
- Japan manufacturing PMI at 1:30 am GMT (May 23)
- German GDP at 7:00 am GMT (May 23)
- Various Euro area manufacturing & services PMI at 8:15 am GMT (May 23)
- German IFO business climate, current conditions & expectations at 9:00 am GMT (May 23)
What to Watch: EUR/USD
As mentioned up top, we’ve got a couple of potential catalysts for the currency markets to pay attention to: the FOMC meeting minutes in the afternoon U.S. trading session and the manufacturing and services PMI updates for the Euro area in the upcoming Thursday London trading session.
The FOMC meeting minutes do have the potential to spark big moves for the Greenback, but it’s highly unlikely we’ll hear any surprises given how Fed members are constantly communicating with the media on their thoughts. So, the probability is low of a USD reaction, but give that it is related to the Fed, we’ve gotta keep an eye on the Greenback.
As far as the Euro area PMI update, it tends to be a market mover for the euro especially since the updates have been in a negative trend for a while. It looks like the expectations are for more stabilization from the fall, which could be a positive for the euro in the short-term.
So for EUR/USD bulls, a bearish FOMC minutes and positive surprises from the Euro area PMIs could be the spark needed to break the short-term falling ‘highs’ pattern on the hour chart above. And with a daily ATR of around 50 pips, the minor resistance area between 1.1200 – 1.1250 is an achievable target from current levels within the next couple of sessions.
For the bears, any talk of rate hikes from the FOMC would likely spark a rally in the Greenback, making the falling ‘highs’ pattern one to watch for sell patterns. And if we get weaker-than-expected read from the Euro area PMIs, a break of the previous swing low and 1.1100 major psychological handle would likely draw in sellers to possibly spark momentum selling in the short-term.