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For the last watchlist post of the week, keeping it simple with this intraweek trend on NZD/USD.

Intermarket Snapshot

Equity Markets Bond Yields Commodities & Crypto
DAX: 12230.88 +1.09%
FTSE: 7323.92 +0.37%
S&P 500: 2880.71 +1.04%
DJIA: 25871.29 +0.87%
US 10-yr 2.409% +0.03
Bund 10-YR -0.095% -0.001
UK 10-YR: 1.058% -0.011
JPN 10-YR: -0.063% -0.006
Oil: 63.01 +1.60%
Gold: 1291.10 -0.52%
Bitcoin: 7957.96 -2.81%
Etherium: 257.14 +3.51%

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:

  • BoE’s Haskel speaks in York  at 6:30 pm GMT
  • ECB’s Coeure speaks in Geneva at 7:00 pm GMT
  • Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks in Tokyo at 4:00 am GMT (May 17)
  • New Zealand manufacturing index at 4:30 am GMT (May 17)
  • Japan tertiary industry activity index at 5:30 am GMT (May 17)
  • Euro area CPI at 10:00 am GMT (May 17)
  • U.S. consumer sentiment & leading index at 3:00 pm

What to Watch: NZD/USD

NZD/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart
NZD/USD 1-Hour Forex Chart

On the  one hour chart above of NZD/USD, we can see the pair has been in a solid downtrend all week thanks to negative global risk sentiment, sparked by the rising tensions between the U.S. and China on trade. We just saw a pop up higher in NZD/USD to retest the falling ‘highs’ pattern and traders quickly reversed the market, signalling the trend lower is still intact.

Looking forward, the economic calendar is looking kind of bare going into the weekend, with one exception–the upcoming New Zealand manufacturing PMI sentiment update. If that number comes in weaker than the 51.9 previous read, traders could get more bearish on the Kiwi. So for the bears, watch out for that update and for any further negative developments on the U.S.-China trade negotiations story. From a price action point of view, this pair is already in short territory up to the falling ‘highs’ area around 0.6580 – 0.6600, and if using a daily ATR of around 40 – 50 pips as a stop, that should place the invalidation point above the previous swing highs.

For the bulls, any positive turn in U.S.-China trade negotiations story and a better-than-expected NZ manufacturing update is likely enough to get this pair moving to the upside, and enough to break that falling ‘highs’ pattern. If that scenario plays out, look for a break-and-retest type setup to confirm the bullish momentum before thinking of playing this pair to the long side.