Light calendar ahead due to the weekend holiday, so the textbook technical patterns and recent catalysts from Europe make EUR/USD the pair to watch for the session.
Intermarket Snapshot
| Equity Markets | Bond Yields | Commodities & Crypto |
| DAX: 12203.96 +0.42% FTSE: 7467.19 -0.06% S&P 500: 2897.89 -0.09% DJIA: 26497.85 +0.18% |
US 10-yr 2.554% -0.038 Bund 10-YR 0.023% -0.059 UK 10-YR: 1.202% -0.034 JPN 10-YR: -0.026% -0.017 |
Oil: 63.62 -0.22% Gold: 1277.60 +0.06% Bitcoin: 5245.29 +0.49% Etherium: 171.57 +3.24% |
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- US retail sales soared 1.6% in March
- Philly Fed manufacturing index declines in April as outlook drops to three-year low
- US weekly jobless claims lowest since 1969; unemployment rolls shrink
- Shoppers ignore Brexit chaos as UK retail sales show surprise jump
- German Factories, Stuck in a Slump, Hold Back Euro-Area Economy
- Japan PM aide: May delay sales tax hike if BOJ tankan survey sours – media
- Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI – Stronger employment growth lifts PMI, but export demand continues to falter
- Australia jobs surge past expectations but unemployment ticks up
- Canadian Retail Sales Bounce Back After a Months-Long Slump
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- Fed Bostic speaks in Jacksonville, FL at 5:10 pm GMT
- Japan National CPI at 12:30 am GMT (Apr. 19)
- U.S. building permits at 1:30 pm GMT (Apr. 19)
- U.S. housing starts at 1:30 pm GMT (Apr. 19)
What to Watch: EUR/USD
With the Easter holiday just ahead, we don’t have very many potential market moving catalysts to throw on the watchlist, leaving us with U.S. housing and Japanese CPI data as our only potential sparks for volatility heading into the weekend. So, the U.S. dollar is our best bet as housing data can be a market mover (Japanese data doesn’t usually ignite much volatility), and recent technical setups and market driving themes could continue to play out for the next session or two.
For today we’ll focus on EUR/USD, which just spiked lower on the session due to another disappointing round of PMI updates from Europe. On the one hour chart above, we can see that this behavior broke a pattern of rising ‘highs’, as well as taking the market below a strong area of interest around 1.1280 (broken resistance turned support, now broken again). Without any scheduled events to potential shift euro sentiment, it’s likely euro bears will stay control until next week. And if U.S. housing comes out better-than-expected, then this technical breakdown may not be a fake out and have some legs to retest the April lows within the next few sessions.
For conservative bears, waiting for a pullback to the broken support/resistance patterns might be a good idea, considering that profiting may come ahead of the weekend. For those who aren’t conservative, shorting at market still gives a decent potential R:R given the daily ATR range of around 50 – 60 pips.
For the bulls, again, there could be profit taking before the weekend that could spark a bounce, especially if U.S. housing data disappoints or we get a negative surprise catalyst for Greenback. Also, if 1.1200 is retested, that’s a more interesting level for a buy given the strong support in that area in March and April.