The upcoming update on U.K. employment and lots of Fed speak ahead makes Cable one to watch, especially if it retests a major support area.
Intermarket Snapshot
| Equity Markets | Bond Yields | Commodities & Crypto |
| DAX: 12009.74 +0.08% FTSE: 7424.30 -0.17% S&P 500: 2904.18 -0.11% DJIA: 26371.44 -0.15% |
US 10-yr 2.558% -0.002 Bund 10-YR 0.066% +0.011 UK 10-YR: 1.235% +0.023 JPN 10-YR: -0.042% UNCH |
Oil: 64.12 -0.76% Gold: 1302.20 -0.89% Bitcoin: 5144.50 -0.24% Etherium: 165.62 -1.48% |
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- US is said to water down demand that China curb subsidies amid push for a trade deal
- Russia, OPEC may ditch oil deal to fight for market share: Russian minister
- Empire State manufacturing index rebounds in April, but growth still ‘fairly subdued’
- Fed’s Charles Evans tells CNBC rates can stay unchanged into fall of 2020
- China to Maintain Prudent Monetary Policy, PBOC’s Chen Says
- Rightmove: April U.K. house prices up 1.1% on month
- Brexit: Jeremy Hunt says ‘absolute priority’ to avoid European polls
- Brexit talks with Labour more constructive than people think: UK’s Hunt
- Bundesbank Sees Moderate Pickup in German First-Quarter Growth
- Bank of Japan: Additional easing possible
- Canadian home sales edged up 0.9% month-over-month in March 2019 – CREA
- New Zealand Services PMI 52.9 vs 53.6 previous
- Swiss Producer and Import Price Index rose by 0.3% in March 2019
- SNB’s Jordan sees room for more intervention if needed
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- Bank of Canada Busines Outlook Survey at 3:30 pm GMT
- BOE member Haskel speaks in London at 5:00 pm GMT
- Fed member Evans speaks at 6:00 pm GMT
- U.S. TIC Net Long-term transactions at 9:00 pm GMT
- Fed member Rosengren speaks in Davidson, NC at 1:00 am GMT (Apr. 16)
- Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting minutest at 2:30 am GMT (Apr. 16)
- Japan Tertiary industry activity index at 5:30 am GMT (Apr. 16)
- U.K. employment update at 9:30 am GMT (Apr. 16)
What to Watch: GBP/USD
Pretty quiet start to the new week for forex traders, but the action should pickup in the next session or two, especially for the British pound with the latest employment data coming in the Tuesday morning London session. We’ve also got various speeches from Federal Reserve members to potentially get the Greenback moving until then, but the focus for the next session or two will likely be the U.K. data.
So, for today’s watchlist, we’re looking out for a retest of the major support area that’s held on GBP/USD in April, around the 1.3000 major psychological handle. If the market makes it’s way down there and U.K. employment data comes inline or better than expectations, there’s a good chance buyers can hop in, especially with the recent positive Sterling sentiment thanks to the news of the EU granting a Brexit extension until October. And with a daily ATR of around 110 pips on this pair combined with employment data, that 1.3000 area is not out of the question to be tested in the next session or two. Buers seem to already be in control for now, so also look out for support and reversal patterns starting around 1.3050 down to the 1.3000 handle.
For the bears, it might not get interesting until the markets get up the previous resistance area starting around 1.3150 up to the 1.3200 handle, but we’ve also got a pattern of rising “lows” that should be watched if broken. If broken with very bearish U.K. employment data, that could be a signal to make a short play, but with 1.3000 just ahead, you might have to take a quick profit or adjust the trade to make sure it doesn’t go from a winner to a loser.
