The lack of data releases scheduled in early London session trading means that traders will take cues from overall risk sentiment for direction.
Will NZD/USD trade in a new direction today?
Before we talk setups, let me list down the top headlines that markets saw in the last couple of hours:
- U.S. House impeaches Trump for a second time; 10 Republicans vote yes
- Fed’s Brainard: Current pace of asset purchases likely appropriate ‘for quite some time’
- U.S. economy growing modestly but virus tempers optimism, Fed says
- Italy thrown into political crisis as Renzi sinks government
- New Zealand building permits climb 1.2% in November
- Japan Nov core machinery orders rise 1.5% month/month
- UK housing market boom starts to fade, survey shows
- China’s trade surplus hits record as pandemic fuels exports
- Japan Dec wholesale prices fall 2.0 pct yr/yr
- Trump bolsters ban on U.S. investments in China
- Third stimulus check: Biden could announce $2,000 direct payments on Thursday
- Bonds dip, Nikkei charges higher as stimulus hopes stoke gains
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- ECB Chairperson Lagarde to speak at Reuters event at 10:00 am GMT
- Eurozone industrial production at 11:00 am GMT
What to Watch: NZD/USD
NZD/USD is trading inside what looks like a symmetrical triangle after breaking below a rising trend line support that had been solid since mid-December.
Will today’s headlines extend NZD/USD’s uptrend? Or will Kiwi bears find more momentum to drag the comdoll lower?
I’m not seeing top-tier releases during early London trading, so it’s likely that traders will take cues from risk sentiment for another day.In case you just tuned in, know that markets are cheering the possibility of the Biden administration passing a stimulus bill worth trillions and that may include $2,000 in direct payments.
It also doesn’t hurt that the U.S. Senate won’t pick up Trump’s impeachment articles until the last full day of his administration (January 19), which means that we won’t worry (much) about leadership instability until then.
If the risk rally continues across the board, then we could see NZD/USD trade above the 100 and 200 SMAs to break above its triangle. Watch out for a trip above the broken trend line support, which could eventually boost NZD/USD to its January highs.
Meanwhile, the bears can watch out for a break below the triangle support. If NZD/USD makes new January lows, then the comdoll can make its way to the .7100 or .7050 previous support levels.