Concerns for rising coronavirus cases after economies have eased lockdown restrictions and the U.S.-China trade conflict got traders scrambling for the safe havens during the Asian session.
And, because the POTUS himself has supported a strong dollar, most of them safe-haven seekers went to the Greenback.
Check out the major headlines in the last few hours:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Trump pivots to embrace a strong U.S. dollar
- BOC’s Wilkin’s says increase in asset purchases “not part of our design right now”
- NZ’s manufacturing sector falls to its lowest on record in April
- Japan wholesale prices drop 2.3% in April as crude oil prices plunge
- China’s fixed-asset investment down 10.3% in first four months
- China’s industrial output surges in April
- As China reopens, factories fire up but jobs gloom keeps consumers at home
- Dollar set for weekly gain as pandemic recovery hopes waver
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- Germany’s preliminary GDP at 6:00 am GMT
- France’s quarterly employment change at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro Zone’s flash GDP at 9:00 am GMT
- Euro Zone’s trade balance at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. retail sales at 12:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: AUD/JPY
Will the risk aversion theme extend to the London session? The euro zone is set to print a couple of closely watched reports today, but I don’t think they’ll affect intraweek trends much.
Instead, traders will likely focus on the U.S. retail sales release as they look for signs that the weak spending that we’re seeing in post-lockdown China may happen in the U.S.AUD/USD is looking a little iffy for me right now, so I got my eyes on AUD/JPY’s downtrend.
As you can see, the pair looks set to bounce lower after seeing resistance near the top of a channel and the 100 SMA on the 1-hour time frame.
AUD/JPY’s volatility analysis tells me that the pair could still fall by about 50 pips to the area of interest near 68.75 if the bears manage to get some traction. This could happen if traders continue to price escalating (economic) hostilities between the U.S. and China.
If London session players trade more like the optimistic U.S. session warriors, however, then we could see AUD/JPY break above the channel and maybe hit areas of interest near 69.7 or 70.00