Not a lot of big moves for the major currencies today!
That doesn’t mean we won’t see action in the next couple of hours, however.
In fact, between OPEC+ members’ meeting and Uncle Sam’s weekly initial jobless claims, I think we’ll see volatility on USD/CAD’s charts.
Currency Snapshot:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- FOMC minutes: economic projections ‘downgraded significantly’ due to COVID-19
- The Fed staff’s worst-case scenario: No recovery until next year
- Coronavirus brings UK housing market to “near standstill” – RICS
- Kuroda: Japan’s economy faces ‘extremely high’ uncertainty on pandemic hit
- Russia, Saudi to debate oil output cuts as U.S. resists joining
- Crude futures climb ahead of OPEC+ meeting
- Asian stocks gain on hopes pandemic is approaching peak
- New Zealand’s COVID-19 measures knock retail spending
- Bank of Korea holds rate steady at 0.75% and awaits effects of last easing
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- Germany’s trade balance at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s monthly GDP at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s 3-month services index at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s goods trade balance at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s industrial production at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s manufacturing production at 6:00 am GMT
- Japan’s preliminary machine tool orders at 6:00 am GMT
- ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes at 11:30 am GMT
- OPEC meetings scheduled today
What to Watch: USD/CAD
USD/CAD is now about 600 pips away from the 1.4600 highs that it had reached back in mid-March.
Aside from the big 1.4000 technical support, it’s interesting to note that the pair is also trading inside a possible descending triangle on the 1-hour time frame.
If triangles represent indecision, then today’s closely watched events should bring bulls and bears back on the table.The world’s top oil producers are meeting today to discuss the possibility of further oil production cuts.
Word around is that they could cut production as much as 10 million barrels per day, but many believe that we’ll see a much smaller figure than that if members agree to anything at all.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is set to print its third weekly initial jobless claims data since the pandemic really hit the U.S. shores. Analysts see another 5 million new claimants for the week.
If OPEC members fail to agree on a (significant) production cut, then we could see USD/CAD break above the triangle and the 100 and 200 SMAs.
But if today’s U.S. initial jobless claims translates to another round of dollar-selling, then USD/CAD could finally break below 1.4000 and maybe hit its 1.3700 previous support levels.