Currency pairs seem to be stuck in consolidation these days as traders wait for the next big catalyst. Will we see a breakout on this pair soon?
Currency Snapshot:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- New Zealand trade balance up from 414M NZD deficit to 594M NZD surplus
- RBNZ bought 250M NZD of gov’t bonds in first QE auction
- NZ declares national emergency and prepares for lockdown
- Asian markets tick higher in hopes of U.S. coronavirus aid package
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- U.K. headline and core CPI at 8:00 am GMT
- Switzerland’s Credit Suisse economic expectations index at 10:00 am GMT
- German final Ifo business climate index at 10:00 am GMT
- U.S. Congress to vote on $2 trillion stimulus package
What to Watch: USD/JPY
All eyes and ears are on the U.S. Congress vote on the $2 trillion coronavirus aid plan, which some say is almost a done deal.
If that’s the case, this could result to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation that could lead to an unwinding of long USD positions and a break lower on this pair’s rising wedge pattern.
USD/JPY has been attempting to bust through the 111.50 minor psychological handle but continues to encounter strong resistance, and stochastic is suggesting that selling pressure is building up.
These indicators reflect mostly overbought conditions or exhaustion among buyers, so sellers could take control soon. A break below support around 110.50 could set off a drop that’s around the same height as the wedge, which spans roughly 200 pips.
Whether you choose to trade a bounce or a break, don’t forget to consider your USD/JPY volatility analysis in placing your entry, stop, and profit targets.