With not a lot of major data releases on tap, London session traders will have their eyes on any and all Brexit updates.
Will we see significant moves from Cable today?
It’s possible! But before we talk setups, check out the top market movers in the last few hours:
- Schumer rejects McConnell’s offer to drop state and local aid, liability shield from stimulus package
- New Zealand manufacturing sales volume climbs 3.1% in Q3
- Australia consumer sentiment hits 10-year high
- Japan’s October machinery orders rebound from previous month’s drop
- China’s factory prices fall more slowly in November, food weighs on consumer prices
- China’s pork-driven deflation unlikely to push PBOC off course
- Mnuchin Pitches $916 billion relief plan including state aid
- Shares hit record on vaccine progress, sterling awaits Brexit meeting
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- Germany’s trade balance at 7:00 am GMT
- BOC’s policy statement at 3:00 pm GMT
What to Watch: GBP/USD
In case you missed it, optimism over vaccine developments and talks of stimulus in the U.S. and China have propelled high-yielding currencies like the pound higher against safe-havens like the dollar.
Pound bulls can’t party as much as they want to, though, not when the U.K. and EU leaders have yet to ink an exit deal before the year ends in just a few weeks.Boris Johnson is set to meet Ursula von der Leyen – president of the EU’s executive European Commission – in Brussels on Wednesday to try to muddle through gaps that their reps have so far failed to close.
And they better act fast! Word around is that Michel Barnier has already told EU’s ministers that a no-deal scenario is more likely, while Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin hints that EU leaders would have to discuss contingency plans if we still don’t see breakthroughs “in the next day or two.” Yipes!
More whispers of a no-deal Brexit could drag GBP/USD down to its weekly lows near 1.3250 and even start a longer-term downswing for the pound.
But if Johnson and EU officials talk compromises, or if London and U.S. session traders choose to price in vaccine and stimulus-related optimism, then Cable could hit the 1.3475 zone that represents a key inflection point on the daily time frame.