I’m seeing a textbook break-and-retest setup forming on the short-term chart of this pair.
Any major reports that could spur a bounce in the next few hours?
I have a few ideas, but we’ll probably understand today’s catalysts better by reviewing the top headlines in the late U.S. and early Asian sessions:
- OPEC+ agreed on 500K bpd production cut starting January
- Brexit talks hit a wall on policing and enforcement
- U.S. Congress shows support for $908 billion coronavirus aid bill
- President-elect Biden adds that coronavirus aid bill must be passed
- California warns of region-by-region lockdown
- Moderna to supply up to 125 million COVID-19 vaccine doses globally in Q1
- U.S. Challenger job cuts slip from 60.4% to 45.4% y/y in November
- U.S. weekly jobless claims at 712K vs. 775K consensus, 787K previous
- U.S. ISM services PMI dipped from 56.6 to 55.9 in Nov as expected
- Jobs component of ISM services PMI up from 50.1 to 51.5
- Australian retail sales rose 1.4% vs. 0.5% forecast and 1.6% previous
- Fonterra raised 2020 & 2021 milk price forecasts
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- German factory orders at 8:00 am GMT
- Italian retail sales at 10:00 am GMT
- U.K. construction PMI at 10:30 am GMT
- BOE MPC member Tenreyro to testify at 10:30 am GMT
What to Watch: EUR/CAD
This pair is currently in the middle of a correction to an area of interest visible on the 1-hour chart. Price is testing the 38.2% Fib but could still be due for a dip to the resistance-turned support closer to the 1.5600 handle.
This happens to be closely in line with the 50% Fib and the 100 SMA dynamic support. Also, 100 SMA is safely above the 200 SMA to confirm that bulls are likely to defend these support levels.At the same time, a bullish divergence is showing up as Stochastic formed lower lows while price had higher lows.
Loonie bulls came out after the OPEC+ agreed to curb production, but it looks like the amount is smaller than what most market participants expected.
Traders might also be keen to book profits off these long CAD positions ahead of the release of Canada‘s jobs figures later in the day, as the economy is expected to print a slowdown in hiring.
Meanwhile, the euro has the German factory orders report to contend with, along with updates on Brexit negotiations.