With only lower-tier data releases due, all eyes will be on vaccine updates and Brexit negotiations in the next couple of hours.
How will these themes affect GBP/AUD?
I have a few ideas, but we’ll probably understand today’s catalysts better by reviewing the top headlines in the late U.S. and early Asian sessions:
- Fed’s Quarles says banks should be encouraged to increase lending
- Powell says no rift with Mnuchin, signals Fed not stepping back
- Fed’s Harker: U.S. economy ‘plateauing’ because of virus, lack of fiscal help
- U.S. crude inventories dip, fuel stocks build amid weak demand: EIA
- Feds Beige Book sees little to no growth in much of U.S. as stress mounts
- AU construction industry recovery strengthens in November
- Australia posts largest trade surplus in 6 months
- Australia approves tough new veto powers over foreign agreements amid China row
- New Zealand new home consents reach highest level in nearly 50 years
- China services sector picks up steam in November – Caixin
- Coronavirus vaccine will roll out in Australia in March
- Chinese firms on U.S. exchanges threatened by bill headed to Trump’s desk
- Asian shares mixed, U.S. dollar near two-and-half year lows
- Australia, NZ dollars highest since 2018 on vaccine rush
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- OPEC+ members resume talks today
- Spain’s services PMI at 8:15 am GMT
- Italy’s services PMI at 8:45 am GMT
- France’s final services PMI at 8:50 am GMT
- Germany’s final services PMI at 8:55 am GMT
- Eurozone’s final services PMI at 9:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s final services PMI at 9:30 am GMT
- Eurozone’s retail sales at 10:00 am GMT
- U.S. Initial jobless claims at 1:30 pm GMT
- ISM’s services PMI at 3:00 pm GMT
What to Watch: GBP/AUD
GBP/AUD turned higher just above the 1.8000 major psychological handle that has been supporting the pair since early November.
Since GBP/AUD’s strength came after Australia has (a) published a strong trade data and (b) confirmed its vaccine rollout schedule, I’m starting to think that Aussie bulls are starting to get tired.A quick look at the forex calendar tells me that we only have a few PMI reports from the European regions on tap. This means that London session traders will likely take their cues from Brexit negotiations, OPEC’s meeting, and vaccine updates.
If EU and U.K. leaders hint that there’s progress on the sticking points in the Brexit negotiations, then we could see GBP/AUD jump to its 1.8100 mid-range or 1.8250 range resistance levels.
If we hear about negotiations possibly extending through 2021, or if the OPEC+ members’ decision supports risk-taking, then GBP/AUD could finally break below its 1.8000 support and retest previous inflection points near 1.7950 or 1.7925.