Want in on the anti-dollar trend?
AUD/USD may soon offer an entry opportunity.
But first, check out the major headlines that Asian session traders have priced in so far:
- OPEC+ postpones talks to December 3 amid disagreements: sources
- Treasury’s Mnuchin urges Congress to tap unused CARES Act funds for COVID relief
- Australia’s manufacturing stabilizes in November
- Japan’s jobless rate rises to 3.1% in October: government
- Japan corporate capex, profits sag as COVID impact bites
- Australia house approvals rise to a 20-year high in October
- Australia has A$10.024 Billion current account surplus in Q3
- China’s November factory activity growth hits decade high: Caixin PMI
- RBA leaves record-low interest rates unchanged
- RBA says significant jobs gains needed to return CPI to 2-3%
- Australia’s Queensland lifts most state border curbs in boost to economy
- Asian shares extend gains on recovery hopes, following stellar November
- Dollar sellers return with an eye on the Fed
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- Switzerland’s Q3 GDP at 6:45 am GMT
- U.K.’s Nationwide house price index at 7:00 am GMT
- Spain’s manufacturing PMI at 8:15 am GMT
- Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI at 8:30 am GMT
- Italy’s manufacturing PMI at 8:45 am GMT
- France’s final manufacturing PMI at 8:50 am GMT
- Germany’s final manufacturing PMI at 8:55 am GMT
- Germany’s unemployment change at 8:55 am GMT
- Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI at 9:00 a GMT
- U.K.’s final manufacturing PMI at 9:30 am GMT
- Eurozone’s CPI flash estimate at 10:00 am GMT
- Canada’s GDP data at 1:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: AUD/USD
Late last week we talked about AUD/USD possibly breaking above an ascending triangle on the 1-hour time frame.
Now that the pair is actually above the pattern, I’m looking for a way to enter the “breakout.AUD/USD is currently having trouble breaking above the .7370 resistance that had held for most of last week. A drop to .7325 would offer a good entry point for the bulls as it lines up with the 200 SMA and a significant November resistance level.
The Aussie’s bullish trend against the dollar doesn’t look like it will let up anytime soon. Markets are happy about the early rollout of the promising vaccines, while a potential lack of fiscal support in the U.S. might prompt the Fed to provide more monetary stimulus as early as December.
Aussie bulls can take advantage of a revisit to the 200 SMA if AUD/USD continues to find resistance at the 100 SMA. November’s highs look like good areas for initial profit-taking.
Meanwhile, the bears can ride the current bearish pressure until we see green candlesticks, or they can wait for a clear break below the 200 SMA for a longer-term reversal play.