It’s the final day of voting for U.S. citizens and, in a few hours, the world will have more clues on what kind of leadership to expect in the next few years.
With economic reports likely taking a back seat, I’m setting my sights on a potential setup on EUR/USD.
Before we talk inflection points, though, you’ll want to see the top headlines during the Asian session:
- Japan’s markets out on Culture Day holiday
- Hong Kong SFC wants cryptocurrency trading platforms to be regulated
- RBA cuts rates, announces A$100 billion bond-buying program
- Australian dollar dips, bond yields at record lows on RBA easing
- Asian shares in a broad-based rally on eve of U.S. election
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- Switzerland’s CPI at 7:30 am GMT
- U.S. factory orders at 3:00 pm GMT
- U.S. starts counting ballots today
What to Watch: EUR/USD
The biggest story of Asian session trading is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) not only cutting its interest rates but also expanding its asset purchasing program to help lift the economy from its lockdown lows.Unfortunately for the RBA, their move will likely fade in the background as the U.S. conducts the last day of its elections and starts counting ballots.
While we may not know the winner of the Presidential elections today, we’ll have a clearer view of trends to expect from the leadership of the world’s largest economy as the ballots come in.
EUR/USD is a pair to watch as it hangs out just above the 1.1625 support from late September. A clear winner or a sweep of the Congress and Senate seats by one party will signal decisive policymaking and likely boost risk sentiment.
Too-close-to-call numbers, or results that are open to prolonged recounting, however, would inspire uncertainty and likely weigh on high-yielding currencies and boost safe havens like the yen, franc, and even the dollar.
EUR/USD typically moves by around 55 pips on Wednesdays, but keep an eye out for volatility spikes as we see the U.S. election drama unfold.