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The euro lost ground across the board as traders priced in potential lockdowns in the region’s major economies.

Will we see EUR/AUD break its uptrend today?

Before you enter any orders, take a look at the top headlines during the U.S. and Asian sessions:

Major Forex Pairs Price Performance from MarketMilk
Major Forex Pairs Price Performance from MarketMilk

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

  • Germany’s import prices at 7:00 am GMT
  • Credit Suisse economic expectations at 9:00 am GMT
  • U.S. goods trade balance at 12:30 pm GMT
  • BOC’s policy announcement at 2:00 pm GMT
  • BOC’s presser at 3:15 pm GMT

What to Watch: EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD 4-hour Forex Chart
EUR/AUD 4-hour Forex Chart

While there are no major reports on tap during the early London session, the euro will likely see volatility as market players speculate on the potential lockdowns in Germany and France.

On the other side of the trade, the Aussie and Kiwi were rockstars against the Greenback during the Asian session after traders priced in Melbourne reopening its economy and New Zealand still flexing its low COVID-19 infections.

Today’s themes will make it interesting for EUR/AUD bulls and bears as the pair tests a trend line support that hasn’t been broken since mid-September. As you can see, the 100 and 200 SMAs are also around the trend line area.

A broader-than-expected lockdown announcement from Macron and more rumors of Germany imposing localized lockdowns could drag EUR/AUD below its trend line and even the 200 SMA support.

A recovery of euro demand, however, or a more localized lockdown in France could extend the euro’s uptrend against the Aussie.

What do you think? Which way will EUR/AUD go?