Talks of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) team discussing negative rates and currency intervention among themselves did NOT help traders who were still busy pricing in risk aversion from the U.S. session.
We won’t see a lot of data releases in the next coupla hours, so the majors will likely take cues from overall risk sentiment.
Before we discuss EUR/USD’s range play, lemme list down the top headlines during the Asian session trading:
- Japan’s markets out on Autumnal Equinox holiday
- Australia central bank assessing various monetary policy options, A$ slips
- RBA’s Debelle: Australia is not going to recover from the recession quickly
- Debelle: negative rates “extraordinarily unlikely”
- Debelle: “A lower exchange rate would definitely be beneficial”
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.1pts to 93.5 as new COVID-19 cases continue to decline and restrictions ease
- Oil edges up as U.S. storm eases, but recovery fears persist
- Stocks down on fresh lockdown worries, banking sell-off; dollar rises
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- BOE’s Bailey to host a webinar at 7:30 am GMT
- U.K.’s CBI industrial orders expectations at 10:00 am GMT
- Fed Chairman Powell to talk pandemic relief efforts in DC at 2:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: EUR/USD
As you can see above, EUR/USD briefly traded below the 1.1750 minor psychological handle before the euro bulls managed to keep the common currency above the key range support.With no major data releases scheduled in the next few hours, traders could focus on pricing in fears of fresh lockdown measures in the Eurozone as COVID-19 cases in the region noticeably climb.
Meanwhile, Powell’s testimony in DC later today will turn the spotlight on the lack of fresh fiscal stimulus in the U.S.
Unless we hear about more monetary or fiscal stimulus in the making, then we could see EUR/USD break below a range that it has been trading in since late July. Given that EUR/USD can move by an average of 60 pips on Tuesdays, the 1.1710 previous area of interest is one to watch in case of a dowside break.
If traders decide that they’ve worried enough, however, or if Powell’s testimony leads to a dollar selloff, then we could see EUR/USD go back to its 1.1820 mid-range levels.