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I’m looking at this textbook break-and-retest setup now that RBA head Lowe signaled scope for further easing and a lower AUD rate.

Think a bounce by GBP/AUD from the Fib levels is due?

Before we look at the setup, here’s a rundown of what happened in the previous session:

Currency Snapshot

Major Forex Pairs Price Performance from MarketMilk
Major Forex Pairs Price Performance from MarketMilk

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

  • Swiss trade balance at 7:00 am GMT
  • U.K. public sector net borrowing at 7:00 am GMT

What to Watch: GBP/AUD

GBP/AUD 1-hour Forex Chart
GBP/AUD 1-hour Forex Chart

This currency pair recently busted through short-term resistance around the 1.8000 level and is in the middle of a pullback.

Applying the handy-dandy Fib tool shows that the 38.2% level lines up with this area of interest where more buyers might be waiting. If it holds as support, GBP/AUD could recover to the swing high and beyond.

However, the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to reflect the presence of selling pressure while Stochastic has plenty of room to move south before indicating exhaustion among bears.

It’s worth noting that RBA head Lowe sounded slightly dovish in his latest testimony, citing that he’d like to see a lower AUD value and that easy monetary policy could stay on.

Meanwhile, the mood in Europe could see some improvement as EU leaders already reached an agreement on the Recovery Fund.

Just keep in mind, though, that risk-on flows have been observed in the earlier session as positive developments in COVID-19 vaccine trials have been reported.

Whichever direction you choose to play, just make sure you check out the average GBP/NZD volatility when you set entries and exits!