The U.K. is printing a couple of lower tier reports today, which could turn traders’ focus to the pound as a risk trade.
Think today’s themes will extend GBP/USD’s uptrend?
Before I show you today’s setup, lemme list down the biggest headlines of the Asian session:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- BoE’s Bailey sees economy improving, but ‘very worried’ about jobs
- Fed’s Williams says shift away from interest-rate benchmark in 2 years remains on track despite coronavirus
- Monthly U.S. budget deficit soared to record $864B in June
- California’s new lockdown dims outlook for U.S. growth in pandemic
- U.S. plans to restrict Mexico, Canada border crossings until late August
- New Zealand May international arrivals lowest in 61 years
- Japan approves 2.2B JPY emergency aid for flood-hit regions
- China posts surprise June trade gains as economies try to reopen
- Dollar grinds higher amid worries about U.S.-China tensions and virus cases
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- French markets out on National Day holiday
- U.K.’s monthly GDP at 6:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s industrial and manufacturing production at 6:00 am GMT
- Eurozone’s industrial production at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. CPI numbers at 12:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: GBP/USD
GBP/USD is consolidating around the 1.2550 minor psychological level, which also lines up with the 1-hour chart’s 200 SMA and an ascending channel support that’s been valid since the start of the month.
Risk trading can also factor in as major economies like the U.S. and Australia struggle with reopening economies. European countries like France and Italy are getting ready to announce stimulus programs, however, so we could see some risk-taking especially after China’s trade data surprised to the upside.
If risk sentiment improves in the next couple of hours, then we could see Cable pop back up to the 1.2600 or 1.2650 resistance levels.
If the U.K. prints disappointing lower-tier reports, however, or if risk aversion continues to limit the demand for high-yielding currencies, then GBP/USD could break below the 200 SMA and hit previous support levels closer to 1.2500 or 1.2450.