The London session is light on potentially market-moving economic releases, so I’m looking ahead to Canada’s jobs data and its possible impact on USD/CAD.
Are you also looking to trade the Loonie today?
Before I show you my setup, lemme list down the top Asian session headlines you might have missed:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Japan looks to reopen business travel with 10 more Asian economies
- Japan’s wholesale price fall eases in June, weak demand clouds outlook
- Australia to cut number of citizens coming home as virus cases rise – PM
- Japan’s economy to shrink at fastest pace in decades this fiscal year due to pandemic: Reuters poll
- UK has opted out of EU coronavirus vaccine programme
- Asian stocks fall on virus worry, China stock rally pauses
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- France’s industrial production at 6:45 am GMT
- Italy’s industrial production at 8:00 am GMT
- European Council’s meetings ongoing
- Canada’s jobs report at 12:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: USD/CAD
USD/CAD is flirting with the 1.3600 major psychological handle, which is juuuust above a descending channel resistance on the 1-hour time frame.The “breakout” could gain traction today if Canada prints worse-than-expected jobs numbers. Word around is that markets are looking for a net jobs increase of 600,000 and for the unemployment rate to chill from 13.7% to 11.9% in June.
If labor market numbers disappoint, or if coronavirus concerns continue to drive traders into buying the U.S. dollar, then we could see USD/CAD hit 1.3650 as the pair’s average daily volatility suggests.
If Canada’s release surprises to the upside, however, or if we see a bit of profit-taking ahead of the weekend, then USD/CAD could drop back inside the channel and trade closer to the 100 or 200 SMAs.
What do you think? Are we looking at an upside breakout for USD/CAD?