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The dollar scored a few punches against its major counterparts today.

The ECB is up though! Word around the hood is that Governor Lagarde and her crew are about to make stimulus rain today.

Will it extend EUR/USD’s uptrend this week?

Before we check out the chart, read the major headlines that influenced price action during the Asian session!

Currency Snapshot

Major Forex Pairs Price Performance from MarketMilk
Major Forex Pairs Price Performance from MarketMilk

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

  • Switzerland’s CPI at 6:30 am GMT
  • U.K.’s construction PMI at 8:30 am GMT
  • Eurozone retail sales at 9:00 am GMT
  • U.S. Challenger job cuts at 11:30 am GMT
  • ECB’s policy decision at 11:45 am GMT

What to Watch: EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart
EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

As you can see, EUR/USD has been on a happy uptrend since last week. Specifically, a rising trend line has been supporting the euro since May 25.

Can today’s events extend the uptrend?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to share its monetary policy decisions for the month of June and the word around is that Governor Lagarde and her team will announce a sizable pandemic-related stimulus program (PEPP). This comes after Germany added 130B EUR to its own stimulus efforts through 2021.

Don’t discount the dollar just yet! Today’s weekly unemployment claims report could inspire risk aversion if it hints at a much weaker NFP number tomorrow. Ditto for any updates suggesting increased tensions between the U.S. and China.

If EUR/USD makes new weekly highs, then we could see the pair climb to just under 1.1300 before the week ends. A quick check of EUR/USD’s average volatility says this move is possible.

If the euro ends up breaking below the trend line, however, then EUR/USD could revisit areas of interest closer to 1.1175 and 1.1150.