With ECB head Lagarde due to give a speech in the London session, I’m hoping to see enough volatility for a pullback on this pair.
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- China considers slashing tariffs in half on some U.S. imports
- Asian markets follow through on positive momentum in previous sessions
- Australian retail sales slip 0.5% vs. projected 0.2% dip in December
- Australia’s trade surplus narrowed from 5.52B AUD to 5.22B AUD vs. 5.65B AUD forecast
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- German factory orders due at 7:00 am GMT
- ECB President Lagarde to testify at 8:00 am GMT
- EU economic forecasts at 10:00 am GMT
- U.S. Challenger job cuts at 1:30 am GMT
What to Watch: EUR/NZD
Risk appetite has recovered in recent trading sessions as China seems to be stepping up its game when it comes to keeping the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the economy contained.
This was enough to bring EUR/NZD down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on its recent rally, and it appears that buyers are trying to defend this area. A deeper pullback could last until the 50-61.8% Fibs that span an area of interest.
Moving averages are mostly bullish on this pair, with the 100 SMA above the 200 SMA to confirm that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse.
A bounce off the 1.6900-1.6925 area could take EUR/NZD back to the swing high around 1.7175, and a stop below the 1.6850 area could be enough to weather the pair’s average daily volatility.