Now that the U.S. has signed its “Phase One” trade deal with China, I’m looking at comdoll pairs for trade opportunities ahead of a top-tier U.S. release.
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Factbox: What’s in the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal
- Concerns linger after U.S. and China sign initial trade deal
- Fed sees U.S. economy on track, Trump renews Fed gripes
- Oil prices rise as China agrees to more US energy purchases
- Canadian Crude Prices Sink On Cold Snap
- Japan posts record machinery orders growth in November in boost to economy
- U.K. estate agents report ‘uplift’ in housing market
- China’s home price growth at almost 1-1/2-year low, further softening seen
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- Germany’s final CPI and HICP at 7:00 am GMT
- BOE’s quarterly credit conditions survey at 9:30 am GMT
- ECB’s monetary meeting minutes at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada’s ADP non-farm employment change at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. retail sales data at 1:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: NZD/USD
High-yielding, commodity-related dollars received a nice boost against the Greenback earlier today after the U.S. has officially signed its Phase One trade deal with China. Among others the deal includes China buying more U.S. goods while Uncle Sam rolls back some of its tariffs on Chinese goods.
Concerns around main issues have kept a ceiling on higher-yielding bets, however. China’s “based on market conditions” loophole on its agricultural purchases, for example, could allow China to delay its purchases to a much later date. It also doesn’t help that most details of the deal have already been priced in.
This is probably why NZD/USD is having a hard time breaking above a descending channel resistance and 200 SMA on the 1-hour chart. If you’re confident that the Kiwi will extend its short-term downtrend, then you can aim for yesterday’s lows and use MarketMilk’s daily volatility analysis as stop loss guide.
Meanwhile, the bulls can wait for the U.S. retail sales on tap today for a potential upside catalyst. The previous areas of interest near .6650 and .6775 are good targets once NZD/USD breaks above the trend line and 200 SMA.