With the polls in the U.K. about to close soon, I’m expecting a bit more volatility that could trigger this setup on GBP/AUD.
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Fed Decision: Interest rates left unchanged, indicates no changes through 2020
- Fed head Powell: It will take significant inflation pressures to spur rate hike
- BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya signals easy policy bias in face of trade risks
- RBNZ reweighted its TWI, effective December 13
- RBA Bulletin: Slowing growth in China to impact Australian economy
- Final set of U.K. election polls still shows Conservatives lead
- Japanese core machinery orders slipped 6.0% vs. projected 0.7% gain
- Australia’s MI inflation expectations index unchanged at 4.0%
- U.K. RICS house price balance down 12% vs. projected 5% drop
- Asian shares bounce on slightly dovish FOMC
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- SNB monetary policy statement at 9:30 am GMT
- Euro zone industrial production at 11:00 am GMT
- ECB monetary policy decision at 1:45 pm GMT
- ECB press conference at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.K. parliamentary elections ongoing
What to Watch: GBP/AUD
All eyes and ears are on the U.K. parliamentary elections as polls are about to close soon and likely indicate a win by Conservatives. However, there are still some worries that they might not be able to secure enough seats for a majority.
Apart from that, profit-taking or a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation may be in order after the official results are announced, likely allowing this pair to retreat to lower support areas.
GBP/AUD could pull back to the 50% Fib near the 1.9150 minor psychological mark or the 61.8% level that coincides with a short-term rising trend line. Stochastic is already on its way up, though, to confirm that bullish pressure is in play. Also, moving averages reflect a bullish trend.
A buy limit order at the 1.9085 mark could be enough to weather election-related volatility, unless of course the actual results suggest further political uncertainty or the possibility of a hung parliament.
Not sure how big your stop losses should be? Here’s GBP/AUD’s average volatility per day: