The euro zone PMIs are up for release next, and strong results could support the idea that the region is due for a rebound.
Currency Snapshot:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Japanese national core CPI y/y up 0.4% as expected, 0.3% previous
- Japanese flash manufacturing PMI up from 48.4 to 48.6 vs. 48.7 consensus
- Australia’s Markit flash manufacturing PMI dipped from 50.0 to 49.9
- Australia’s Markit flash services PMI down from 50.1 to 49.5
- PBoC adviser: China still has room to adjust monetary policy
- South Korea to end intelligence pact with Japan
- China urges US to end provocative acts in South China Sea, doubts on “phase one” of trade deal rise
- US President Trump to sign bills backing protesters in Hong Kong
- China revises 2018 nominal GDP by 2.1%
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- French flash manufacturing and services PMIs due 8:15 am GMT
- German flash manufacturing and services PMIs due 8:30 am GMT
- Euro zone flash manufacturing and services PMIs due 9:00 am GMT
- U.K. flash manufacturing and services PMIs due 9:30 am GMT
- ECB head Lagarde’s testimony coming up
- Canadian retail sales figures due 1:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: EUR/CAD
With small improvements eyed for euro zone leading indicators, I’m hoping to catch quick bounce for the shared currency in this session. On the flip side, expectations for another dip in Canadian retail sales figures could be enough to keep the Loonie on weak footing.
To top it all off, resurfacing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade talks could keep a lid on gains for commodity currencies and the dollar, giving the euro its “safe-haven proxy” appeal back.
EUR/CAD has formed higher lows connected by a longer-term rising trend line and is also seeing lower lows from stochastic. This bullish divergence suggests that a bounce could happen at the 50% Fib level, but a larger correction could still take the pair to the 61.8% Fib around 1.4675.
Both the simple and exponential moving averages reflect a bullish trend for the pair. However, the upcoming data releases could still spur additional volatility, so preempting a move might be risky.
Scaling in might prove to be a better option, with an entry around current market levels and another on a larger correction to the 61.8% Fib. Waiting for the actual figures to be printed could also work out.
