The Aussie is lagging way behind its peers so far, with jobs data and China’s numbers coming in the red. Here’s what I’m watching this session.
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
- Japan’s GDP shrank from downgraded 0.3% reading to 0.1% in Q3
- Australian employment down 19K in Oct. vs. expected 16.2K gain
- Australian employment change downgraded from 14.7K to 12.5K in Sept.
- Australian unemployment rate up from 5.2% to 5.3%
- Chinese fixed asset investment slid from 3.4% to 3.2% y/y in Oct.
- Chinese industrial production down from 5.8% to 4.7% vs. 5.5% forecast
- Chinese retail sales sank from 7.8% to 7.2% y/y vs. 7.8% estimate
- Japanese tertiary industry activity improved 1.8% vs. 0.2% consensus
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- German preliminary GDP q/q at 7:00 am GMT
- Swiss PPI m/m at 7:30 am GMT
- U.K. retail sales at 9:30 am GMT
- Euro zone flash employment q/q at 10:00 am GMT
- Euro zone flash GDP q/q at 10:00 am GMT
- FOMC member Quarles’ testimony at 10:30 am GMT
What to Watch: GBP/AUD
Economic releases in the earlier session weighed heavily on the Australian dollar as jobs figures missed the mark while China’s data dump hurt risk appetite.
Recall that the RBA previously hinted that they’re keeping close tabs on the employment situation to gauge whether or not more rate cuts are needed. Heck, many are pricing in another easing move by January 2020 or even December this year!
It doesn’t help the Aussie’s cause that the data misses from China, its top trading partner, could extend the ongoing slowdown.
This pair already popped higher earlier but seems due for a quick pullback to support before resuming the short-term rally. The upcoming U.K. retail sales could provide a bit of volatility as analysts expect to see a 0.2% uptick after the earlier flat reading.
Releases from the U.K. haven’t been on the up and up lately, though, so there could be a chance that consumer spending might also disappoint. If so, price could still test the trend line and area of interest just above the 1.8800 handle.
Both short-term and long-term trend strength analysis puts GBP/AUD in bullish territory.
If you’re planning on trading GBP/AUD in the London session, note that the pair has one of its more volatile days going on this Thursday.