New Zealand is about to print its quarterly retail sales report soon!
Can this spur another leg higher for NZD/JPY?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out a range resistance test on NZD/USD after the RBNZ rate hike. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. Nov flash manufacturing PMI down from 50.4 to 47.6 vs. 50.0 forecastU.S. Nov flash services PMI down from 47.8 to 46.1 vs. 48.0 forecast
U.S. Nov UoM consumer sentiment index upgraded from 54.7 to 56.8
EIA crude oil inventories showed 3.7M draw vs. projected 2.6M reduction
RBNZ head Orr: NZ financial system resilient to rising unemployment
FOMC minutes: Smaller rate hikes coming soon
FOMC: Monetary policy approaching “sufficiently restrictive” level
BOC head Macklem: Higher rates will take time to spread to the economy
China’s daily COVID cases at 29,754 – highest during the pandemic
Bank of Korea hiked rates by 0.25% as expected
Japanese Nov flash manufacturing PMI down from 50.7 to 49.4 vs. 50.4 forecast
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving
New Zealand quarterly retail sales at 9:45 pm GMT
Tokyo core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: NZD/JPY
Since New Zealand is the only one with a major catalyst lined up, I’m looking at another trade opportunity on a Kiwi pair!
NZD/JPY has been cruising higher inside a rising channel on its hourly time frame, and it looks like a test of support is underway.
Will buyers return soon?It could depend on the outcome of the quarterly retail sales report from New Zealand, as the economy might print a decent rebound in consumer spending for Q3.
Analysts are expecting to see a 0.5% increase in headline retail sales after the earlier 2.3% slide, along with a 0.7% pickup in core retail sales.
Stronger than expected results could remind traders that the RBNZ could carry on with its aggressive pace of policy tightening, as evidenced by the 0.75% interest rate hike earlier this week.
As for technicals, indicators like moving averages and Stochastic are pointing to a continuation of the uptrend as well.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA and is in line with an area of interest that could attract more buyers. Meanwhile, Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions to show that sellers are taking a break.
In that case, NZD/JPY could find some support around the 87.00 levels and resume the climb to the upside targets like the channel resistance at 88.00.
Don’t forget to look out for the release of the Tokyo CPI in the next trading session, too!