Who else is watching “riskier” bets pulling back from their lows?
If you’re looking to jump on AUD/USD’s downtrend, then you’ll want to see its 4-hour chart!
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at USD/JPY’s uptrend ahead of the U.S. CPI release. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. monthly headline CPI up by 0.4% in Sept vs. 0.2 expected, core CPI also higher at 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimates
Annualized U.S. inflation slows to 8.2% –the lowest in seven months – but still higher than 8.1% estimatesU.S. initial jobless claims climb to 6-week highs of 228K
EIA: U.S. crude supply up by 9.9 million barrels for the week ended Oct 7, the most since March 2021
BusinessNZ: New Zealand’s manufacturing sector loses steam, drops from 54.8 to 52.0 in September
China’s Sept CPI accelerates from 2.5% to 2.8% y/y, its fastest since April 2020
China’s producer prices eased from 2.3% to a 20-month low of 0.9% y/y in September
Asian stocks track Wall Street higher
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
Eurozone’s trade balance at 9:00 am GMT
BOE’s quarterly bulletin at 11:00 am GMT
U.S. retail sales at 12:30 pm GMT
Canada’s manufacturing sales at 12:30 pm GMT
Canada’s wholesale sales at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. UoM consumer sentiment at 2:00 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: AUD/USD
AUD/USD 4-hour Forex Chart
Like other risk-friendly assets, AUD/USD gained ground yesterday when traders priced in the U.K. government possibly going back on its published tax plans.
And that’s AFTER the U.S. published higher-than-expected inflation numbers!
AUD/USD jumped from its .6200 lows and is now trading closer to the 0.6325 zone that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October’s downswing.Are we looking at a pullback opportunity here? Take note that .6325 also lines up with a monthly support back in September.
Meanwhile, Stochastic is juuust hitting overbought levels and may soon attract AUD sellers.
AUD/USD traders could see more volatility today when the U.S. releases its retail sales data.
Stronger-than-expected numbers will give the Fed more room to raise its rates even higher and possibly choke domestic and global growth.
Look out for bearish momentum below the 38.2% Fib as it could lead to AUD/USD retesting its weekly lows.
Of course, this week’s risk-taking could also extend all the way until the end of the week.
A clear break above the 38.2% Fibonacci line opens the door to a possible move to the .6400 psychological level near the 61.8% Fib or the .6440 zone closer to the 4-hour chart’s 100 SMA.
