Who’s down to trade the NFP release today?
Check out this make-or-break setup I’m seeing on USD/CHF!
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at USD/CAD’s range and potential trend shift. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. Challenger job cuts up by 67.6% in September
U.S. initial jobless claims at 219K vs. 205K consensusIvey PMI slipped from 60.9 to 59.5 vs. 62.3 forecast
Fed official Waller: Need to be more aggressive to get inflation down to target
Japanese average cash earnings accelerated from 1.3% to 1.7%
Japanese PM Kishida: Rapid one-way FX moves are undesirable
Japanese leading indicators improved from 98.9% to 100.9%
Swiss jobless rate unchanged at 2.1% as expected
German import prices posted 4.3% jump vs. estimated 2.2% gain
German industrial production slipped by 0.8%, following previous 0.3% dip
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
Canadian employment change data at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 12:30 pm GMT
FOMC member Williams’ testimony at 2:00 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: USD/CHF
USD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart
It’s NFP Friday, ladies and gents!
Will this top-tier jobs report spur a big move for the dollar today? And which direction might it go?
Number crunchers are predicting a bit of a slowdown in hiring for September, and a few leading indicators like the JOLTS job openings and Challenger job cuts figure point to that outcome.If that’s the case, USD/CHF could retreat from its test of the symmetrical triangle resistance and fall back to the bottom around .9850.
Much weaker than expected results might even spur a break lower and trigger a drop that’s the same height as the triangle or roughly 200 pips.
However, there are some bright spots in the ADP non-farm employment change report and the ISM services PMI that hint at another possible upside surprise. Don’t forget that the NFP has been beating market forecasts for four months in a row already!
If that’s the case, USD/CHF could bust through its triangle top and stage a rally that’s about the same size as the chart pattern.
Technical indicators are giving mixed signals, though. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to reflect bullish pressure, but Stochastic is on its way down to indicate that sellers could have the upper hand.
In any case, make sure you practice proper risk management when trading this big news event!
