A couple more leading jobs indicators are due from Uncle Sam today!
Will we see more figures pointing to a weak NFP?
If so, can this take USD/CHF on a reversal from its uptrend?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out a descending trend line pullback on EUR/USD. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. JOLTS job openings down from 11.17M to 10.05M vs. 11.07M forecast
White House lobbying OPEC+ nations to stop cutting output?U.S. factory orders came in flat as expected in August
API oil inventories show surprise draw of 1.77M barrels
New Zealand dairy prices down by 3.5% in latest GDT auction
RBNZ hiked interest rates to 3.50% as expected
German trade balance narrowed from 3.4B EUR to 1.2B EUR vs. 4.8B EUR forecast
French industrial production rebounded by 2.4% vs. expected flat reading
Spanish flash services PMI down from 50.6 to 48.5 vs. consensus at 49.7
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
OPEC-JMMC meetings still ongoing
U.S. ADP non-farm employment change at 12:15 pm GMT
U.S. ISM services PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
EIA crude oil inventories at 2:30 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: USD/CHF
Is that a double top pattern I’m seeing on the hourly chart of USD/CHF?
I’ll be on the lookout for a potential test of the neckline around the .9750-.9775 area in case a breakdown happens during the next trading sessions.The upcoming New York session could be a volatile one for dollar pairs since the ADP jobs report and ISM services PMIs are up for release.
Now these are considered leading indicators for the NFP report, so we might see traders gearing up for an upside or downside surprise from the results.
So far, the employment clues from the ISM manufacturing survey and JOLTS job openings figure aren’t looking too good. Another miss from these upcoming releases might mean plenty of downside for USD/CHF.
As for technicals, the 100 SMA just made a bearish crossover from the 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
In other words, support is more likely to break than to hold. In that case, USD/CHF might be in for a selloff that’s the same height as the chart pattern!
Stochastic is still heading up to reflect bullish energy, but the oscillator is also nearing the overbought region to signal exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower might be the go signal for more sellers to hop in.
If U.S. data surprise to the upside and support keeps holding, USD/CHF might set its sights back on the tops or even at parity.