The U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will be out in a few!
Will the release help extend Cable’s short-term uptrend?
Or will it lead to a reversal for GBP/USD?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at EUR/USD’s bounce from an established range support. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
UK construction PMI sank from 52.6 to 48.9 in July, the lowest since May 2020
As expected, BOE hikes interest rates by 50 bps (biggest increase since 1995) to 1.75% (highest rate since 2009)
BOE expects inflation to rise by 10% in Q3 to “just over 13%” in Q4
BOE: “Policy is not on a pre-set path”BOE: GDP to have fallen by 0.2% in Q2, risen by 0.4% in Q3, then see five quarters of negative growth starting Q4
US jobless claims hit six-month high of 262K as labor demand cools
Canada building permits fall 1.5% in June vs. 1.6% growth in May
Canada June trade surplus widens to 5B CAD on record energy exports, but seen narrowing
Australia’s AIG services index higher from 48.8 to 51.7 in July
Japan’s annual cash earnings accelerates from 1.0% to 2.2% in June
RBA revises growth and unemployment forecasts lower inflation sharply higher
Halifax: average house price falls by 0.1% – first drop in a year
Jittery markets see bond funds enjoy largest weekly inflows since Nov 2021
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
U.S. NFP reports at 12:30 pm GMT
Canada’s labor market numbers at 12:30 pm GMT
Canada’s IVEY PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: GBP/USD
GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart
All eyes will be on Uncle Sam’s July NFP report, which could show a net of 250K workers finding jobs in July.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and labor participation rate are expected to maintain their June readings.
Better-than-expected results would signal that the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes aren’t slowing down economic activities. Much.Markets could price in even more Fed rate hikes and drag GPB/USD firmly below its trend line and 200 SMA resistance areas on the 1-hour time frame.
Of course, traders can just as easily interpret good news as good news.
Risk-taking in the markets just might make GBP attractive for traders who are choosing to ignore BOE Gov. Bailey’s calls for a U.K. recession starting Q4.
GBP/USD could bust above 1.2150 and head for its monthly highs closer to 1.2250 – 1.2300.
What do you think? Will enough GBP bulls come out to play in the next trading sessions?
