New Zealand has its quarterly jobs report coming up, so I’m looking at this potential trend play on a Kiwi pair.
What do you think of this NZD/USD pullback?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at a neat pullback opportunity on USD/JPY. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 53.0 to 52.8 vs. 52.3 forecast
U.S. construction spending sank by 1.1% vs. projected 0.3% uptickU.S. ISM manufacturing prices down from 78.5 to 60.0 in July
RBA hiked interest rates by 0.50% to 1.85% as expected
RBA upgraded inflation forecasts but downgraded growth estimates
RBA: Further steps to normalize policy “not in a preset path”
Taiwan to strengthen its combat readiness by Thursday
Chinese state media shares plans to conduct military drills in South China Sea
Hong Kong central bank intervened to maintain HKD peg policy against USD
U.K. Nationwide HPI showed 0.1% uptick in house prices vs. 0.2% consensus
Swiss SECO consumer climate index tumbled from -27 to -42 vs. -31 estimate
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
U.S. JOLTS job openings at 2:00 pm GMT
New Zealand GDT dairy auction coming up
New Zealand quarterly jobs data at 10:45 pm GMT
FOMC member Bullard’s testimony at 10:45 pm GMT
Australian retail sales at 1:30 am GMT (Aug. 3)
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: NZD/USD
This pair has been in a steady uptrend since mid-July, and the upcoming jobs report from New Zealand might make or break its flow!NZD/USD just bounced off the ascending channel resistance and is in the middle of a pullback to the Fib levels.
So far, price is down to the 50% Fib and might still retrace to the 61.8% level near the channel bottom at .6265. This also happens to be in line with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point, adding to its strength as a floor.
If buyers return soon, NZD/USD could make its way back up to the swing high near the .6350 minor psychological mark or the channel top closer to .6400.
Technical indicators seem to be favoring a continuation of the climb, so it’s worth keeping your eyes peeled for signs of a bounce.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse while Stochastic is dipping into the oversold region to suggest that sellers are tired.
Of course this might all boil down to the outcome of the upcoming NZ jobs release. Number crunchers are expecting a stronger pace of hiring at 0.4% versus the earlier 0.1% uptick, which might bring the jobless rate down to 3.1% for Q2.
Just be careful if the actual figure falls short of estimates since this might spur a channel breakdown and reversal!