We’re about to see Uncle Sam’s non-farm payrolls for the month of June!
Will the closely-watched release drag EUR/USD to parity today?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out USD/JPY’s consolidation ahead of the U.S. NFP release. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
ECB: ‘gradualism’ doesn’t mean rate moves will be small or slow
High oil prices helped boost Canada’s trade surplus from 2.2B CAD to 5.3B CAD in May
GBP bounces on Boris Johnson resignation plan
U.S. initial jobless claims soar over 200,000 for eighth straight weekU.S. trade deficit shrinks by 1.3% with exports at record high in May
Canada’s IVEY PMI slows from 72.0 to a four-month low of 62.2 in June
EIA: refineries’ output cut, SPR release push U.S. crude stockpiles to 8-week highs last week
Bloomberg: China considers $220 billion stimulus with unprecedented bond sales
Japan’s household spending dips for a third consecutive month in May as chip shortage hits car sales
Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe shot while delivering speech
Asian stocks rise ahead of U.S. payrolls but Abe shooting jolts sentiment
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
EU’s economic forecasts due today
ECB President Lagarde to give a speech in France at 11:55 am GMT
U.S. NFP reports at 12:30 pm GMT
Canada’s labor market data at 12:30 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: EUR/USD
EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart
In a few hours, the U.S. will print its labor market data for the month of June.
Analysts see the headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) to come in at 275K, while the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and labor force participation rate are seen maintaining their 3.6%, 0.3%, and 62.3% May figures respectively.
Will the report drag EUR/USD to parity today?
EUR/USD is trading inside a falling wedge pattern on the 1-hour time frame. More importantly, the pair is approaching the pattern’s make-or-break levels.Weaker-than-expected NFP numbers or hints that the labor market is cooling down could encourage traders to price in a less aggressive tightening plan from the Fed.
Traders could unwind their pro-USD trades and push EUR/USD closer to the 1.0300 levels near the 100 SMA.
If Uncle Sam shows a tighter labor market, though, then the Fed will have one more reason to stick to its aggressive interest rate hikes.
Market playas could stick to a pro-USD, anti-risk theme and drag EUR/USD to the big 1.0000.
What do you think? Will we see EUR/USD at 1.0000 before the week ends?
