The U.S. is printing its core PCE price index today!
Will today’s numbers push more traders to price in a recession?
How will the release affect AUD/USD’s triangle consolidation?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out AUD/NZD’s Double Bottom breakout ahead of China’s data releases. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Fed Chairman Powell: “no guarantee” the Fed can tame inflation without hurting jobs
ECB’s Lagarde: Era of ultra-low inflation unlikely to return
BOE Gov. Bailey: 50bps rate hike on the tableBOE’s Bailey: UK economy weakening more and earlier than others over higher energy prices
EIA: U.S. crude stocks down, fuel inventories up as refiners hit the gas
ANZ survey shows NZ firms pessimistic about the economic outlook, expect “dire” drop in profits
China’s manufacturing PMI up from 49.6 to 50.2, services higher from 47.8 to 54.7 in May
Germany’s retail sales inch 0.6% higher vs. 1.1% expected, 5.4% drop in May
Germany’s jobless rate soars from 5.0% to seven-month high of 5.3% in June as Ukrainians register in job centers
Swiss retail sales fall by another 1.6% in May
U.K.’s GDP confirmed at 0.8% in Q1 2022
EU natural gas poised for biggest monthly gain since September
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Economic Calendar:
OPEC meetings ongoing
Canada’s monthly GDP at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. core PCE price index at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. initial jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. personal income and spending at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. Chicago PMI at 1:45 pm GMT
U.S. EIA natural gas storage at 2:30 pm GMT
AU AIG manufacturing index at 10:30 pm GMT
Japan’s unemployment rate at 11:30 pm GMT
Japan’s Tankan quarterly indices at 11:50 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: AUD/USD
AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart
Uncle Sam has a lot going on today including the release of the core PCE price index.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to maintain its 0.3% growth in May while the annual rate dips from 4.9% to 4.8%.
Upside surprises are likely, though, since we’re talking about the same month when the official CPI clocked in a 41-year high of 8.6%.Faster-than-expected inflation readings would give the Fed reason to step up or at least maintain its aggressive tightening schedule.
Not good for employees since Powell has just made it clear that price stability is trumping the labor market and even recession fears rn.
If traders price in their U.S. or global growth fears, then AUD/USD could finally break below its .6870 descending triangle support on the 1-hour time frame.
The .6825 zone is a good initial target but it will really depend on the momentum of any breakout.
Meanwhile, an pro-risk or anti-USD trading session could push AUD/USD back to its trend line resistance near the 100 and 200 SMAs.
Watch out for a clear break above .6900, which may lead to a trip back to the .6950 or .7000 inflection points.
