EUR/AUD is testing a strong area of interest, which could be the jump off point for a momentum move with Australian jobs data ahead.
Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at USD/CHF ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. CPI data, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!
|Equity Markets||Bond Yields||Commodities & Crypto|
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NASDAQ: 15,622.71 -1.66%
US 10-YR: 1.565% +0.116
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Fresh Market Headlines and Economic Data:
U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years
Federal Reserve’s Bullard expects two rate hikes in 2022
Mortgage applications jumped 5.5% from last week – MBA
U.S wholesale inventories rise +1.4% in September
U.S. weekly jobless claims fall 4,000 to 267,000
China’s Evergrande Group officially defaults
Gold makes five month highs after strong U.S. inflation data
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
New Zealand Food Prices at 9:45 pm GMT
Japan PPI at 11:50 GMT
Australia Employment Change, Unemployment Rate at 12:30 am GMT (Nov. 11)
U.K. GDP, Manufacturing Production at 7:00 am GMT (Nov. 11)
ECB Economic Bulletin at 9:00 am GMT (Nov. 11)
If you’re not familiar with the forex market’s main trading sessions, check out our Forex Market Hours tool.
What to Watch: EUR/AUD
On the one hour chart above of EUR/AUD, we’ve got a slow grinding uptrend currently in the works, with the market steadily trading around the 1.5650 minor psychological level. This area is now likely draw attention from technical traders as a potential buy area, but with top tier Aussie data, we may want to consider both sides of the market first.
Up ahead, we’ll get the latest Australian employment situation update, a monthly report that has been showing weakness in the jobs market over the past two reads. Expectations this time are for a net job gain, but we may also see the unemployment rate tick higher as well from 4.6% to 4.8%. This outcome won’t likely spark a strong directional bias, so we’ll be on the lookout for agreement between the jobs change and unemployment rate before considering a short-term position.
With the current uptrend favoring the euro over the Aussie and broad risk sentiment slightly leaning negative as bond yields rise off of hot inflation data, we’ll be looking to play the uptrend if Australian jobs data disappoints. If the 1.5650 holds before and after the jobs data release, that could draw in short-term traders to play the news, or even swing traders to take advantage of the recent dip from earlier prices above the 1.5700 handle.
If the jobs data surprises to the upside, then we’ll be on the look out for a potential short-term short position if the market can sustain a break below the rising trendline pattern marked on the chart above. That pattern would likely draw in technical sellers, as well as potential profit takers from the November rally in the pair, which as rallied almost 400 pips at the peak since the start of the month.