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We’ve got Aussie and Euro area data up ahead to potential solidify whether or not the resistance break on EUR/AUD is a legit breakout or fake out.

Before moving on, ICYMI, today’s Daily U.S. Session Watchlist looked at the downtrend in AUD/JPY, so be sure to check that out to see if there is still a potential play!

Intermarket Update:

Equity Markets Bond Yields Commodities & Crypto
DAX: 15790.51 +0.65%
FTSE: 7125.42 +0.05%
S&P 500: 4384.63 +0.35%
NASDAQ: 14733.24 +0.21%
US 10-YR: 1.366% +0.01
Bund 10-YR: -0.302% -0.001
UK 10-YR: 0.65% -0.001
JPN 10-YR: 0.024% -0.008
Oil: 74.14 -0.56%
Gold: 1,806.20 -0.24%
Bitcoin: $32,904.75 -2.96%
Ethereum: $2,026.26 -5.10%

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

Dow jumps 120 points to close just shy of 35,000 on earnings optimism

U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation outlook jumps, NY Fed survey shows

NY Fed’s Williams says both Treasury and mortgage purchases are supporting housing market

‘Surprising amount of death’ will soon occur in these US regions from increased Covid-19 cases, expert says

Fed’s Barkin Says Labor Market Hasn’t Healed, Prices May Cool More Than Seen

Crypto trading volume fell 43% in June following China’s crackdown on the sector

Oil slips following two-day gain with demand outlook in focus

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

Australia Business Confidence at 1:30 am GMT (July 13)
Australia New Home Sales at 3:00 am GMT (July 13)
China Balance of Trade at 3:00 am GMT (July 13)
Germany Inflation Rate at 6:00 am GMT (July 13)
BOE Financial Stability Report, Meeting Minutes at 6:00 am GMT (July 13)
France Inflation Rate at 6:45 am GMT (July 13)

What to Watch: EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD 1-Hour Forex Chart
EUR/AUD 1-Hour Forex Chart

On the one-hour chart above of EUR/AUD, we can see the pair recently broke above the 1.5850 minor psychological handle, which held off the bulls three times back in June. So, this is a pretty important level to watch for technical traders, and now that the pair has retraced back to that level, it’s definitely one to watch for a potential short-term play.

Ahead, we’ve got potential catalysts for both currencies on the forex calendar, most notably Australian business confidence data and inflation updates from Europe. Both sets of data points are likely to potentially cause a little stir of volatility, especially if they far off expectations/previous reads.

Given that the pair has been in a slow grind uptrend since March, and that the overall market environment leans more risk averse lately as covid-19 cases spike, we’ll be looking for that strong area of interest around 1.5850 to hold as a potential support area.

And if the  upcoming fundies line up with the bulls (i.e., weak Aussie business confidence and higher Euro area inflation), then it makes sense to look for a long position setup for both short-term and longer-term opportunities. Bullish candles at current levels may draw in buyers quickly in this scenario, and for the more conservative, a break above the falling ‘highs’ trendline might be the price signal to wait for a confirmation that the uptrend is highly likely to resume.